September 24, 2013

To Tulo or Not to Tulo...

Photo courtesy of
Last week, in the New York Daily News, columnist John Harper wrote about the Mets potentially making an off-season run at trading for Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulowitzski is due to make about $134 million over the next seven years.  He is currently 28 years old and is one of, if not the best, short stop combination of defense and offense in baseball.  He is a career .295 hitter with a career .875 OPS. Now, Tulo plays in Colorado so you have to look at this Home vs. Away numbers.  He has a .931 OPS at home and a .819 OPS away from the friendly expanses of Coors Field.  However, .819 is still very good for a short stop.  He averages about 6.1 WAR per 162 games and is a plus defensive player with two Gold Gloves to his name.  To say that least, he is a really good, to potentially great, player.

The Mets do not have a shortstop.  Ruben Tejada recently broke his leg which, in this humble bloggers opinion, means little because I had already given up on him.  There is chatter about bringing the lovable Jose Reyes back.  Personally, I would love this because I miss Jose to death, however, I would not bet my or your life savings on this actually happening.

Harper, in his column, had a suggestion:
OK, so how about this: Travis d’Arnaud, Dillon Gee, and Rafael Montero for Tulowitzki.
At first I was taken back by the inclusion of d'Arnaud.  We have come to have many expectations for him and he is supposed to, one day, be a regular at the mid-summer classic. However, it appears the Rockies are in the market for major league ready position player talent...not exactly something the Mets are flush with.  So...I gave a second thought.

Typically I am not a person that likes to trade young pieces.  My pretend GM strategy is to compile young pieces...a ton of them...wait and see them rise up, then, being a large market team, strike while the iron is hot in the off-season with a spending spree that brings in 2-3 major pieces of talent to compliment the young players and role players.  My theory is this will buy you a 3-4 year window with which to win and if it doesn't work out, by the time the window is closed, those young'ns are ripe for trade or will move on allowing you to begin again.

But think about that trade.  Gee is a back of the rotation kind of guy.  You cannot consider him a big piece.  Rafael Montero is projected to be a middle of the rotation guy with the potential to move up if he can add pitches.  If there is one thing the Mets ARE flush with, it is very young arms.  Of the arms we do have, Montero has to be considered towards the bottom.  He is a great young prospect, but you don't get Tulo for free.  d'Arnaud is the crux of this trade.  This is the lynch pin.  The question comes down to, would you trade a'Arnaud?

I say yes. This isn't because of what we have seen so far offensively.  Yes, he has struggled mightily, but I do not listen to small sample sizes.  He has handled a young staff and been very effective behind the plate receiving pitches.  He has always hit, and will learn to hit here. However, he will not hit for Joe Mauer's average, he will not throw runners out like Yadier Molina, he will not hit for the power of a Mike Piazza, and he will not be Buster Posey.  He will be a good, all-star caliber catcher.  I would compare him to say...a Jorge Posada or maybe a Jason Varitek.  A guy you would love to have on your team...but a guy you can live without for the right price.

I would make that deal for Tulowitzski.  If the Rockies don't go for it...I would shop that deal. I think it can bring back a serious shortstop or a serious corner outfielder...and I think we can live without the three we give up.

No comments:

Post a Comment