You'll recall that the Mets recently sent three scouts to watch an organized workout and came away impressed with Abreu's power, which is believed to be capable of 20-30 home runs a season. However that power, or at least his bat in general, is by far his most attractive feature as scouts predict his offense will need to compensate for a lack a defensive ability at first. Ultimately it's believed Abreu will transition to a designated hitter, making an American League team a more likely destination.
Now.. I'm getting pretty damn sick of defending non-moves, but this one makes sense. Experts predict that Abreu could receive a deal worth $50-$60 million. That's pretty decent coin for a kid who has never faced Major League pitching. The teams front office has talked about having to take risks this winter, but this shouldn't be one of them.
As sick as I am about the Davis/Duda drama, it's reasonable to think you can get 15-20 home runs for a LOT less money. If first base was the teams biggest concern, I would say make the move. However, in this instance I'd prefer they go with what they already know at first, so they can allocate their financial resources elsewhere.
Sandy Alderson has a lot of work to do this offseason. Dropping what I expect will be at least 25% of the available budget for an additional 5 to 10 home runs is bad business, especially when it downgrades the infield defensively. Abreu is an exciting young player, but he just doesn't fit the mold here given the team's current needs at other parts of the diamond.