Mets Payroll Update After Arbitration Settlements

In the past two days the Mets have settled six of their possible seven arbitration cases.  The deals are as follows:

Daniel Murphy: 1yr/$5.7 million
Bobby Parnell: 1yr/$3.7 million
Dillon Gee:  1yr/$3.625 million
Ike Davis: 1yr/$3.5 million
Eric Young Jr: 1yr/$1.85 million
Ruben Tejada: 1yr/$1.1 million

Those deals will join these already guaranteed deals for 2014:

David Wright: $20 million
Curtis Granderson: $13 million
Bartolo Colon: $9 million
Chris Young:  $7.25 million
Jon Niese: $5 million

From there we can only project at this point.  Lucas Duda is the lone remaining potential arbitration case that hasn't been settled.  Multiple outlets have projected that he will be awarded a $1.8 million dollar deal, so that is the number that we use in his case.  Assuming no other moves, the roster will be rounded out by thirteen other players who will be making at, or just above, league minimum.  Therefore we will use an estimated salary of $500K for those players.  Finally, there is a guaranteed $500K that will be paid to Matt Harvey despite the fact that he will spend the season on the disabled list.

That nets a current projected opening day payroll of just $82.525 million dollars.

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Its worth noting that this is an opening day projection and only includes the guaranteed money that the Mets will spend this season.  Other projection, namely that of ESPN's Adam Rubin, includes additional money that the Mets will pay to other players upon injuries and other issues to this starting twenty-five.  Rubin uses a number of $4.25 million to estimate this additional payroll (which includes the $500K I've already allotted to Matt Harvey.  If I were to include the remaining $3.75 million from that estimation, the overall adjusted payroll for the New York Mets in 2014 would be $86.275 million.  This still represents a nearly $5 million dollar decrease from the adjust payroll of just under $91 million in 2013.

Colon's Contract Terms & Updated Projected 2014 Payroll

For the first time since signing his two-year, $20 million dollar deal at the winter meetings, we have learned the terms of Bartolo Colon's contract.  Per a report last night by Adam Rubin citing a source, Colon will earn $9 million dollars in 2014 and the remaining $11 million in 2015. 

As a result, I currently have the teams opening day payroll projected to be $82.35 million.

Guarenteed Contracts:
David Wright: $20 million
Curtis Granderson: $14 million
Bartolo Colon: $9 million
Chris Young: $7.25 million
Jon Niese: $5 million

Arbitration Projections:
Daniel Murphy: $5.8 million
Ike Davis: $3.825 million
Bobby Parnell: $3.725
Dillon Gee: $3.55 million
Eric Young Jr. $1.9 million
Lucas Duda $1.8 million
Ruben Tejada: $1 million

As it stands now, there will be roughly another 13 players who will make around league minimum.  I've used $500,000 in an effort to get an average salary for these players.  Last, but certainly not least, Matt Harvey, who will be paid his $500,000 despite spending the season on the disabled list.

You'll recall as we discussed previously that Sandy Alderson said in early August that payroll would exceed 2013's, which he quoted as being $85 million.  From my figures, he still has a bit to go to get there.  Of course these numbers can fluctuate greatly.  If the team ends up acquiring the services of Stephen Drew, it will almost certainly rise above $90 million.  However, if no other significant moves are made and the Mets ultimately cut Ike Davis, payroll could fall below $80 million.  There are still at least six weeks for that to work itself out.

Mets Projected Payroll Drops On The Eve Of The Winter Meetings

Sandy Alderson met with team reporters last night on the even of the winter meetings.  He said alot, to include the fact that the Mets will likely trade Ike Davis this week.  However, the one thing that probably chapped Mets fans the most was that he reiterated that he doesn't believe the 2015 payroll will be any less than 2013's $85 million dollars.  What..what?

You'll recalled just prior to Thanksgiving that ESPN NY reported that Alderson stated the 2014 payroll would be no less than 2013's $87 million dollars.  So why the change?  Well to be honest we don't know because no one in the room called him on it.  So what does that mean?

Over the weekend we dove into the Mets budget (HERE), or lack there of, and determined that the team would of had $12 million dollars remaining to spend this winter.  The following day it was reported by Newsday's Marc Carig that the Mets by his estimate had $13 million dollars remaining.  There is also an outlier report by the boys over at MetsBlog that the team has between $17-$20 million to spend.  The only way I can get to that number is if I include the salaries of the players, such as Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy that could be freed up if they are traded.

At the end of the day, by whatever projection your decide to use the target minimum payroll of the New York Mets for 2014 dropped two million dollars last night, and that's not good.

The Mets Lack Of Free Agent Spending

If you include the money spent on outfielder Chris Young last week, the New York Mets have now spent just $30,850,000 over the course of the last FOUR offseasons.  That is almost mind numbing when you think about the fact that five teams have already spent more than that this winter alone.

Some notable "small market" teams who've dwarfed the frugal Mets over the past four years...  Kansas City has invested $78.175MM.  Oakland (the Moneyball capital of the baseball world) has dropped $51.25MM.  Even Tampa Bay and Seattle, two teams who are yet to make a move this winter have spent $42.075MM and $33.1MM, respectively.

Its become borderline comical that the Mets, who reside in the largest market in baseball, cannot manager to find their checkbook.  This winter appears not different, with front office personnel tripping over one another to gripe to the media about free agent prices.

Here is a look at how things shape up this winter to date:

1) NY Yankees ($85MM)
2) St. Louis ($52MM)
3) Philadelphia ($42MM)
4) San Francisco ($36MM)
5) Kansas City ($32MM)
6) Cleveland ($12MM)
7) LA Dodgers ($10MM)
8) San Diego ($8MM)
9) NY Mets ($7.25MM)
10) Texas ($3.80MM)
11) Oakland ($3MM)
12) Colorado ($2.5MM)

Obviously things can change, with the Mets supposedly looking to add an impact bat in right field.  However, fans remain increasingly skeptical.  With reports that Alderson has roughly another $20MM you spend this winter things won't be changing that much.  At some point, someone has to ask the team's front office this: "If you won't spend money on players, how can you expect fans to spend money on tickets?"

The Mets Will Have To Overpay

Pretend for a minute that you are fortunate enough to be a professional baseball player.  Better yet, pretend you are a free agent this winter.  Theoretically, you control your own destiny.  You can negotiate your contract and pick your situation.  Certainly you are looking to get paid, but you will also be looking for the best opportunity to for you.  Perhaps that just means the best opportunity to win a World Series, or maybe just the best opportunity for you to see playing time, but you are without question looking for the team that suits your needs best.

No imagine you're contacted by the New York Mets.  A franchise mired in a five year tailspin, whose payroll has been continually slashed and whose fan base is as fickle as ever.  Imaging going to play for the New York Yankees little brother, amidst a very similar if not worse media circus.  How appealing does that sound?

While I realize that is a glass half empty look at the team we love, each of those notions should ring in the ear of any free agent entertaining the idea of signing a free agent contract in Queens.  Yes, David Wright is still around.  Yes, there is a plethora of young pitching.  However, the Mets are not a player, or two..or even three away from contending for a championship.  So, what could get you past all of that?  Bingo...money!!

If the Mets intend on acquiring free agents this summer who have more than one suitor, they had better be prepared to cut some checks.  Simply put, the Mets don't provide a very attractive package.  On the field, they are a team in disarray with many more questions than answers.  Off the field, you're money just doesn't go as far.  Unless you are a marketable player (which are few and far between), deciding to live in New York City is an expensive proposition.  That doesn't take into account places like Florida and Texas where players don't have to pay state income tax.

As it seems is always the case, the deck is stacked against a team like the Mets.  Compound those issues with the fact that Sandy Alderson's front office will do just about everything in its power to avoid overpaying for talent and we could be in for a very disappointing offseason.

While I realize the Mets will be better next year, because they will find players with their sights set on the Big Apple, I can't help but think that these circumstances will impact this winter's potential.  I fully respect the notion of not dishing out bad contracts, but at some point the franchise is going to have a bite the bullet.  What was the point in handing out a nine figure deal to David Wright, if your not going to at least attempt to build around him.  As Wright proceeds into his early thirties, the proverbial clock is ticking.

The Mets are provided an opportunity this winter, as they have what amounts to half their payroll to spend.  I don't advocate them spending it frivolously, but I really hope they do what's necessary to improve the team and don't shy away from the notion of being the highest bidder.  They're going to have to find a way to bring the best players here, and as is the case with most professional athletes, the quick way to their heart will be through their wallet.

Ellsbury or Choo? Neither

Call me crazy but here goes: NEITHER. You heard me and I haven't even had much coffee this morning. And this has absolutely nothing to Scott Boras. Like many others on this blog have stated with Matt Harvey on board Sandy is going to have to deal with him at some point.

Both in question here are good if not great ball players but I have a knock for both of these guys. For Ellsbury it is health. It isn't that he is injury prone the guy plays all out every play from what I have watched and read. It seems every other year he faces an injury that sidelines him significantly. And that isn't going to get better with age. With Choo my knock on him is that his game relies so much on his legs. Wasn't this a concern with Michael Bourn? The older a player gets he isn't going to get faster. So if it was a concern with Bourn then it should be one with Choo.

If you are reading this you probably want to know what my brilliant solution is. Well here goes. Robinson. Jose. Mercedes. Cano. He hits for power, drives in runs, decent on  base percentage, plays a good second base and knows the city and its market and how their media operates. With him at second then maybe Ike or Duda can relax a bit and not pressure themselves so much.

That leaves us with what to do with Daniel Murphy. I love how he plays and what he brings to the team. He is best suited as a corner infielder and David Wright certainly isn't moving and he doesn't have the power numbers that a typical first baseman does. I think you could package him in a deal with Wilmer Flores and a pitching prospect like Montero or DeGrom and get that OF power bat you are looking for. Or worst case maybe look into free agency again for a Hunter Pence or someone like that. Another decent pitcher and we could be in business. Heck, Adam Rubin even suggested on Twitter last night bringing back Kazmir. Maybe he was kidding.

Yes, I just spent a truckload of the Wilpon's money and I don't care. You build teams around guys like Wright, Cano, Harvey, Wheeler, and Parnell. And if Syndergaard lives up to the hype? WOW.

photo courtesy of: www.bridgeandtunnelclub.com

follow me @jwil25

What Could Ninety Million Dollars Buy The Mets In 2014?

What would you need if you were going to rebuild the New York Mets?  A magic lamp, a genie and three wishes, you say?  All jokes aside, you would need money and young talent.  Truth be told, as the offseason draws near, Sandy Alderson will have both to work with.

In case you've forgotten, here are the major contracts which stand to come off the books this winter:
- Johan Santana ($25.5 million)
- Jason Bay ($18 million)
- Frank Francisco ($6.5 million)

There will be others, but those three alone represent $50 million in team payroll which, with the exception of whatever Francisco gives you in the next three weeks, have contributed absolutely nothing to the cause this season.  Yes, that's right.. the Mets have essentially fielded a $50 million dollar team this season.  While their record probably reflects that, you can see how reallocating that money can improve the team..fast!

Its been hypothesized by Sandy Alderson that after raises to folks like Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell (and maybe Ike Davis), that the Mets will enter the offseason with roughly $55 million committed to the 2014 season.  So how much will they spend and more importantly, where will they spend it?

Photo Courtesy of ESPN

The most alarming hole going into the offseason will be the team's outfield.  Believe it or not, the front office should be concerned that it has to replace Marlon Byrd's production.  Enter a player such a Shin-Soo Choo, who the Mets have been linked to as recently as this week, and your talking about a player who will earn an average salary of between twelve and fifteen million dollars.  While that takes a bite out of your budget, it certainly leaves enough to address other areas.

Sandy Alderson has recently expressed an interest in adding a veteran pitcher to the fold this offseason.  How much money will that cost?  Well, Bronson Arroyo has posted two very solid seasons in a row and could command as much as ten million dollars.  I chose Arroyo because he has pitched no fewer than 199 innings every season since 2005.  He's also had an ERA under four, doesn't walk many batters and basically just seems like an Alderson type guy to me.

Photo Courtesy of ESPN

Those two deals by themselves, skyrocket your potential payroll from $55 million to as much as $80 million, and you still have another hole in the outfield to address, may look to improve at shortstop, and then there is that disaster at first base.  So where do we go from there?

In all honesty, I expect the Mets to acquire a second outfielder via trade.  I'm still not convinced that second outfielder will be named Stanton or Gonzalez, but I do anticipate another quality acquisition. The fact that it can be completed via trade (hypothetically, of course) means you have more money to spend elsewhere.  I'm not quite sure there is a guy available who you can conceivably spend more than five to seven million on at shortstop, and at the end of the day I still expect to see Ike Davis get another shot at first.

That leaves you a payroll somewhere from $85 million to $90 million after adding cheaper pieces here and there.  That would mean the Mets would field a much, much better team in the process of lowering their payroll ten million dollars from 2013.  Am I nuts to think that everything I've discussed here is completely plausible?  Does Alderson have the nerve to make such free agent decisions?

The last few years have beaten me down to the point where I'm rarely an optimist, but the team not only needs a big offseason, they have the means to make it happen.  Is a rotation of Wheeler/Niese/Arroyo/Mejia/Gee and a renovated outfield enough to see the Mets turn the corner?  Because that what $90 million and the departure of some quality prospects probably buys you in 2014.

Like what you've read?  You can follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83.