Las Vegas Has The Mets At 73.5 Wins

This week, the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook put out their predictions for the upcoming 2014 MLB season.  It's probably to no one's surprise that they have the Mets coming in with a total of 73.5 wins.  They are also 25-1 odds of being the NL East champions this season, which to me really doesn't seem that high considering the negativity surrounding this team.  I'll give my take on the Mets in a moment, but onto to the rest of the NL East.

The Hilton has the NL East as follows:

Wins
Atlanta - 87.5
Washington - 87.5
Philly - 76
METS - 73.5
Miami - 69.5

Division Odds
Atlanta - even money
Washington - even money
Philly - 12-1
METS - 25-1
Miami - 30-1

I think for the most part, there are no shocking totals here.  The division could and probably should come down to Atlanta and Washington.  This is pretty much on line with how the season finished last season.  All of the teams, including the two at the top, have some question marks, but I think this is fair.

The Mets finished with 74 wins last year, which means Vegas is essentially saying that they haven't improved or gotten worse.  I'm going to pick the over.  I don't care if I get ridiculed for it, I don't think it's a bad bet.  I also don't think its a sure thing.  But I expect this team to be better for a few reasons.

First off, I really don't think that the play from our first basemen and short stop can get any worse than it did last year.  Last year was probably rock bottom for both Ike and Duda, as well as Tejada.  In the past, these guys have all shown they can handle big league pitching, and for whatever excuse they each had, they were all just awful in 2013.  Tejada and Duda both went to the performance camp this winter, and I expect that gains were made from it.  So it's not unreasonable to see improvements from the two black holes we had last season.

Secondly, I expect Travis d'Arnaud to be better in 2014.  He did not impress in his call up last season.  Let's not forget though, prior to his promotion, he played only 99 baseball games in 23 months since the end of the 2012 minor league season.  I'm not making excuses for him, but I consider last year a wash. He was working his way back into shape and had all sorts of pressure on him. This year he comes back to camp, hopefully in shape and healthy.  He has shown he can hit in his minor league career.  Although I am not expecting him to be Mike Piazza, I think he still can be one of the better catchers in the game  After April last year, we got zero production from behind the plate.  Black hole number three should be filled.

My next point is that I think the addition of Curtis Granderson will help David Wright more than people think.  Even thought he has his faults, Granderson is a bona fide power hitter and a good clubhouse presence.  I think having him in the line-up will take a lot of pressure off Wright.  I know people are saying that Granderson only replaces Marlon Byrd, but let's look at it from start to finish.  Byrd wasn't even playing every day in April and May.  And in those months, he was hitting .240 with 6 home runs.  He didn't get hot until June.  So at the beginning of the season, what did Marlon Byrd do for David Wright?  Not much of anything.  Having a guy like Granderson in the line-up on opening day is good for every one's psyche, especially Wright's.

Moving on, even without Harvey, the Mets still have solid pitching.  The rotation is deeper this year.  Harvey is being replaced by another all-star pitcher.  Ok, am I really comparing Colon to Harvey?  No.  But as long as he is healthy, how much worse is Colon going to be, in a pitchers park against the NL? He is going to be fine.  I'd like to think Wheeler will improve, although I'm not expecting a Harvey like rise to stardom in year two.  Either way, the guy can chuck it.  Dillon Gee really took a big leap last year.  And don't forget, he started off terribly in 2013.  But he was coming off the surgery to remove the blood clot from his pitching arm.  When he finally got his arm strength back, he was as reliable as anyone in the rotation. Although I am not expecting him to match his Post May-2013, I think he will be steady and give the team a chance. Niese is Niese. You know what you're getting. As for the fifth spot, I'm really hoping Mejia gets it.  If he does, then I think top to bottom the Mets rotation is as deep and competitive as almost any team in the National League.  This rotation is much improved over last years opening day rotation of Neise, Harvey, Marcum, Gee and Hefner.

The X-factor for this team is going to be Chris Young.  I'm not expecting much.  However I hold on to hope that the former all-star spent this offseason trying to rediscover himself in search of a multiyear deal after 2014.  You've seen it before.  Guys all of a sudden turn on a light when it's time to get paid.  I'm not banking on it, but it'll be big for this team if he somehow can have a Byrd like resurgance.

A lot of what I just said was obviously just assumption.  Like I've said in the past, I'm not an expert, and I won't pretend to be.  The oddsmakers in Vegas are very good at what they do, and I'm sure they have their legitimate reasons why they think the Mets are a 73-74 win team. For the hell of it though, I'm going to give my over/under. As the roster stands right now, my over under is 78.5 wins. If they wind up signing Drew, I'll make that 81.5. I'm obviously banking on a lot of things to go right for this team.  But I expect players who spent their offseason trying hard to become better ball players to actually be better ball players. I don't think that's all that crazy a notion. And if they are better ball players, then they're a better baseball team. I'll also could just be unusually optimistic this morning.  Who knows?  If I wrote this exactly when I woke up today, I might have been singing a different tune. Either way, call me a homer or a shill or whatever you want.  I don't think What I wrote is all that outlandish.

I know most will disagree with me.  Give me the business on Twitter @GetsThruBuckner.

Mets Offseason Grade

Now that the boys have made their way to spring training, we can for the first time truly try to assess what was and what wasn't accomplished this winter.  The Mets exited 2013 in a state of disrepair.  The club's lone redeeming qualities were that their franchise player was under contract, that the young starting pitching prospects have started to arrive and more than $50 million was set to come off the payroll.

The primary tasks at hand, in no particular order, would be to renovate an almost nonexistent outfield, replace ailing ace Matt Harvey, upgrade the shortstop position, and finally to determine the fate of Ike Davis.  Some other areas of concern would be a backup catcher and the normal addressing of the team's questionable bullpen.

Fast forward about five months and Sandy Alderson made what you could consider three major acquisitions.  The first was a one year-$7.25 million dollar deal to Chris Young.  The second, a four year-$60 million dollar deal to Curtis Granderson.  And finally, the two year-$20 million dollar deal to Bartolo Colon.  Of that group, Young's deal was met with the most scrutiny as questions remain as to whether or not he can rebound as an every day player.  There were also some lower cost veteran acquisitions who would complete for both spots in the rotation (Lannan & Matsuzaka) and the bullpen (Valverde & Farnsworth).

Areas that weren't addressed included both the shortstop and Ike Davis situations, despite what amount to very long draw out almost soap operaish attempts to complete each. In reality, each may still work themselves out between now and opening day, but today they remain unaddressed and a hindrance to the 2014 season.  Finally Alderson chose not to upgrade the backup catcher, leaving Anthony Recker as the lone option to the oft-injured Travis d'Arnaud.  A major problem?  Not currently, but if d'Arnaud does fall to injury the Mets could have a crisis on their hands.

If you're trying to grade a winter such as this, it really come down to whether or not the Mets are poised to field a better team.  On the surface, I think the 2014 Mets have a lot more upside.  I think players like Granderson and Young have the potential to outperform their predecessors.  I also think the Mets rotation can be plenty formidable.  However, the team still lacks answers at both shortstop and first base.  They're still far from a playoff contender and by most projections are only slated to win a few more games than last year.  That's really where I come up with a grade of C+ because the team does stand to be better, but with fifty million dollars to spend, not as much better as we'd all like.

Should Alderson find a way to upgrade the shortstop position and finally resolve the Ike Davis dilemma, all the while improving upon the current roster, I'm not against bumping my grade.  However until then, this was only a slightly above average offseason.  New faces in new places, but ultimately I expect similar results.

Mets' Alderson Talks Finances Again

Here we go again. The Post and various other media outlets are reporting that the banks that have issued the Mets loans are keeping them on a payroll restriction. A claim that Sandy Alderson denies. He is quoted as saying the current payroll is just north of $85 million which if memory serves me correctly is similar to last year. That said they unloaded some big nasty contracts for two (who I won't name) who never saw the field. We have added Chris Young, Curtis Granderson, and Bartolo Colon to major league contracts along with Kyle Farnsworth and Jose Valdverde on minor league contracts with zero guarantee of making the team out of camp.

The latter of the two coming off the heels of "missing" out on Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney to rumored similar deals. And then there is the ongoing saga of the Stephen Drew situation be it money, years, opt out clauses, etc. I then meander over to see what Adam Rubin is saying to find this:

“I said it was unlikely that we would sign another major free agent,” Sandy Alderson said. “I think that’s still the case.” #mets
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) February 13, 2014

Unlikely? I think it is more like guaranteed and while the fan in me wishes that weren't the case if it is true then fine. I don't like it and it won't make me cheer on this effing team any less but whatever. I just want this season to start so we can talk about who is doing well, who isn't, and what we as fans are getting for our $85 million payroll.

Photo Courtesey of: NYPost

Follow me @jwil25

Colon's Contract Terms & Updated Projected 2014 Payroll

For the first time since signing his two-year, $20 million dollar deal at the winter meetings, we have learned the terms of Bartolo Colon's contract.  Per a report last night by Adam Rubin citing a source, Colon will earn $9 million dollars in 2014 and the remaining $11 million in 2015. 

As a result, I currently have the teams opening day payroll projected to be $82.35 million.

Guarenteed Contracts:
David Wright: $20 million
Curtis Granderson: $14 million
Bartolo Colon: $9 million
Chris Young: $7.25 million
Jon Niese: $5 million

Arbitration Projections:
Daniel Murphy: $5.8 million
Ike Davis: $3.825 million
Bobby Parnell: $3.725
Dillon Gee: $3.55 million
Eric Young Jr. $1.9 million
Lucas Duda $1.8 million
Ruben Tejada: $1 million

As it stands now, there will be roughly another 13 players who will make around league minimum.  I've used $500,000 in an effort to get an average salary for these players.  Last, but certainly not least, Matt Harvey, who will be paid his $500,000 despite spending the season on the disabled list.

You'll recall as we discussed previously that Sandy Alderson said in early August that payroll would exceed 2013's, which he quoted as being $85 million.  From my figures, he still has a bit to go to get there.  Of course these numbers can fluctuate greatly.  If the team ends up acquiring the services of Stephen Drew, it will almost certainly rise above $90 million.  However, if no other significant moves are made and the Mets ultimately cut Ike Davis, payroll could fall below $80 million.  There are still at least six weeks for that to work itself out.

2013 Mets Year End Recap

For the second time in as many seasons, the New York Mets posted only a 74 win season in 2013.  Identical years, with the lone exception being a third place finish atop the Marlins and Phillies, breaking a four year streak of fourth place finishes.  A successful season by no means, 2013 was not without excitement.  Here is a look back at the biggest stories of the past year.

Matt Harvey
The immergance of Matt Harvey as one of the best pitchers in baseball caught New York and the nation by storm.  Although, despite his new found fame he remained unrecognizable to some New Yorkers.  Plagued by little more than poor run support, Harvey didn't lose a decision until June 13th en route to being named the starting pitcher for the National League at the 2013 All-Star Game held at Citi Field where he promptly drilled Yankee Robinson Cano.  Harvey quickly accrued nearly 180 innings pitched before being shut down following his August 24th start due discomfort in his throwing arm that would ultimately lead to Tommy John surgery.  His finally stat line of 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA with nearly 10 strike outs per nine innings will leave Mets fans with fond memories, but ultimately anticipating his return in 2015.

The Sweep

As has been the case since the introduction of interleague play, the annual series with the Yankees wasthe most anticipated of the year. 2013 saw the expansion of interleague play limit the series to a split two game set in each ballpark. It didn't however limit the excitement, as the Mets surprised everyone by sweeping the season series for the first time. Although they mean nothing more than any other game in the standings, it was nice to have bragging rights over big brother on a rare occasion. 

2013 All Star Game
The mid-summer classic showcased Citi Field in only its fifth season.  In addition to Matt Harvey being named the NL starter, David Wright served as the NL captain of the Home Run Derby (which raised $529,000 for charity) which saw Oakland Athletics stud, Yoenis Cespedes, put to rest any notion that Citi's dimensions were too expansive.  Cespedes crushed 32 home runs to earn the win over Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals.  Despite the National League falling by a score of 3-0, Citi Field shined during a week's worth of activities that brought some rare, positive press the Met's way.

The Youth Movement Continues

The 2013 season twice offered the debut of a much anticipated prospect. Zack Wheeler's highlighted part of an exciting June 18th doubleheader in which the Mets swept the Braves. Although he didn't dominate all year, he showed flashes of the raw talent that made him so coveted by scouts across the game. Travis d'Arnaud followed to similar fanfare in late August after losing much of the season to injury. Despite having a freshman that was disappointing from an offensive standpoint, he showed excellent receiving skills which were well appreciated by those on the staff. 

2013 Offseason
The Mets surprised the masses late this year by investing nearly all of the money that came off the books via the departures of players like Johan Santana and Frank Francisco.  Depsite a slow start, the Mets revamped their outfield through the addition of bounce back candidate, Chris Young, and managed to ink former Yankees slugger, Curtis Granderson, to a four-year deal.  The team wasn't finished though.  In an effort to plug the hole left by the injured Matt Harvey, the Mets signed veteran starter Bartolo Colon to a surprising two year deal which was almost unanimously lauded by baseball insiders as a sign that the Mets are back on track and interested in winning.  Despite having much more work to do, the Mets will finish 2013 a better team on paper than that which took the field this past summer.

Wheeler Wants The Ball On Opening Day

The team holiday party has been ripe with controversy in recent years.  This winter brought not such action, but did have one comment of note.  When asked if he wanted to be the opening day starter in April, Zack Wheeler told Newsday "of course."  The paper goes on to say that Wheeler was quite matter of act about it, rather than giving the politically correct replay that Niese may have claim to it as staff veteran.

It got me thinking, if nothing else.  Niese was the opening day starter in 2013, but that probably had more to do with the fact that the Mets had a weak rotations, as opposed to him actually earning the opportunity.  My guess is that Wheeler will have the fan's support for the opening day nod, as he'll look to parlay the excitement that accompanied his debut season last summer.

Just food for thought, if the opening day start were to be based on 2013 performance it would undoubtedly go to new starter, Bartolo Colon.  I highly doubt the Mets would go in that direction, but it could be an interesting debate.  Who would you select for opening day?  More importantly, why?

How Good Does Bartolo Colon Need To Be?

This morning ESPN's Adam Rubin highlighted a series of projections made at FanGraphs.com which show a return to the norm for Bartolo Colon.  You'll recall that last year Colon boasted a career year in which he went 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA.  That was the main reason he was able to secure a multi-year deal from the Mets.

The Steamer projection believes that Colon will post an 11-11 record with a 3.80 ERA, while the Oliver projection predicts a somewhat more likeable stat line of 12-8 with a 3.45 ERA.  Unfortunately neither predicts how many innings the veteran pitcher will throw.

Fans need to remember that although Colon replaces Matt Harvey in the rotation, he wasn't necessarily acquired to serve as the team's ace.  The Mets needed someone who could come in and throw at least 150 innings this season.  Colon has managed that in each of his last three campaigns.

Basically what it comes down to is whether or not a Dillon Gee type season is acceptable for Colon this year.  I for one would probably sign up for that.  That means he kept the Mets in the games he pitched for the most part, so hopefully the renovated team offense can pick up a few extra wins. 

Colon will turn forty-one in May, and time waits for no man.  I'm not going to get tied up in whether or not he duplicates his 2013 season.  I just want healthy, effective innings that gives the Mets an opportunity to win every time he's on the bump.  That will be enough for me, but is that sufficient for you too?

Mets Holiday Gift Guide

On the off chance you weren't aware, when you wake up tomorrow morning there were just ten shopping days between you an Christmas.  Perhaps you've already finished your shopping, but if your like the rest of us and still scrambling for that perfect gift, here are some Mets gift for the baseball lover in your life.

He hasn't been a Met long, but he's already a fan favorite.  Remember, "true New Yorkers are Mets fans". The Mets acquired Curtis Granderson only a week ago, and you can already acquire his jersey.  Available from MLB Shop, you'll even receive 25% off and free shipping for a limited time. Regular Price: $99.99.

Maybe you're looking for that last minute stocking stuffer?  Head over to The 7 Line, where you'll find this sticker and all other accessories for 50% off for a limited time.  Use the coupon code: 50OffAccessories.  Regular Price: $3.75.

Does your special someone want something that not everyone else has?  Head over to Fanatics where you can find this stretch-fit hat, which features the classic Mets look and a blue mesh back.  All hats, tees and home goods are 20% off today and should you spend $50 you can get free shipping too.  Use the coupon code: 50ship.  Regular Price: $24.95.

Who could forget the kids right?  Lucky for you, the same promotions mentioned above at Fanatics also apply to their huge selection of jerseys, shirts and hats for the youngsters as well.  This Mr. Met shirt is one great example.  Reward the little fan in your life!  Remember, if you spend $50 or more you can get free shipping. Use the coupon code: 50 ship.  Regular Price: $14.95.

 Don't forget, Curtis Granderson wasn't the only new addition the Mets made this week!  Head over the Amazon where you can score this life-like Bartolo Colon action figure for the special child in your life.  There is only one left, so make sure you act fast!! Regular Price: $69.95.

Bartolo Colon Signing Isn't A Bust

Colon finished 6th in AL Cy Young voting in 2013.

As of today, the Mets have agreed to a 2 year, $20 million dollar deal with RHP starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (18-6 2.65), pending a physical.

Mets fans might be confused as to why a rebuilding team might make a "let's win now" move such as this. Why bring on a 40 year-old to lead such a young rotation with other, perhaps more durable options on the table?

Of the notable FA starters New York may have inked this offseason, the following remained unsigned as of December 11th: Bronson Arroyo, AJ Burnett, Chris Capuano, Matt Garza, Aaron Harang, Ubaldo Jimenez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Pelfrey, Ervin Santana, and Johan Santana.

Of those, Arroyo, Jimenez, and Ervin Santana were the only realistic options for Sandy Alderson to go after. However, Jimenez and Santana are entering their age 30 and 31 seasons, respectively, so neither would have accepted any offer less than 4-5 years at this stage in their careers.

Alderson is unwilling to give a multiyear contract to any starter this year leaving him with only, outside of Bartolo Colon, former Red Bronson Arroyo.

Over the past two seasons, Arroyo has gone 26-22, posting a 3.76 ERA in 404 innings. Colon, though four years older, has 28-15 record to a finer 2.99 ERA, though in 342.2 innings pitched.

Alleged PED's or no, Colon is clearly the better pitcher of late, and his age has only minimally affected his innings.

Money-wise, Arroyo is allegedly seeking a deal worth 3 years for $36 million, making him slightly more expensive, and the third year is what most likely killed any talks between his representation and the Mets front office.

Both guys are solid teammates and carry positive clubhouse influence, and either will have successfully ate the injured Matt Harvey's missing innings in 2014.

Colon is a proven veteran who will undoubtedly assist in the development of the Mets' young arms, especially with the experience of more collected hardware than Bronson Arroyo has to brag about.

Sandy Alderson got a solid long-timer for a cheap price, on top of Colon's stellar season last year, I'm not sure what else Mets fans could have wanted.

Personally, I'm thrilled.

(Tweet me @brykrunyon51)

Mets Sign Bartolo Colon

Correction: Mets and Colon still talking. But are discussing 2 year deal. NOT FINAL YET. Correcting previous tweet.
— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) December 11, 2013

I don't know why, by Sweeny Murti sure has had his ear to the ground for all things New York Mets this week. He just reported that the Mets are close to signing Bartolo Colon to a two year deal.

Sources: #Mets, Colon in agreement on two-year, $20M deal, pending physical.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2013

That has now been confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Two years, $20 million dollars for the veteran who will turn 41 years old next season. He is coming off a phenomenal year with the Oakland A's in which he posted a 18-6 record with a 2.65 ERA.

This is an overpay, and if I had to guess will be poorly received by most Mets fans. The Mets were out to get an innings eater, and they've gotten one in Colon who has pitched 152 innings or more in each of the past three season. I'm interested to see how this effects the rest of the offseason. I'm almost prepared to throw any budget estimate out the window, as this dries up any remaining cash the Mets reported had this winter. I can't see how Alderson spends his remaining funds on a move like this, regardless of the upside it has.

Mets Met With Bartolo Colon's Agent Today

Mets had meeting today with agent for Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65 in 30 starts, 190 IP for Oak in 2013).
— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) December 9, 2013

Some Mets news from an unlikely source, Sweety Murti is the Yankees beat writer for WFAN and he's reporting that the Mets brass had a meeting with Bartolo Colon's agent.

This is undoubtedly going to be met with overreaction from Mets fans.  As illustrated above, Colon had an excellent season in 2013.  With that said, he has thrown 152 or more innings in each of the last three seasons, after not doing so from 2006 to 2009.  If acquired, he would be the fourth starter for the Mets, who are in search of an innings eater to hold down the fort until the likes of Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard join the rotation.

Colon made $3 million dollars in 2013 and I have to assume would be in for some type of raise next year.  Its a viable option, if you willing to risk the fact that he's 41 years old with just shy of 2,600 innings on his arm.  I would assume Alderson would only be interested on a one year deal.  This is the type of low risk, high reward move that Alderson has become known for.

I'm not necessarily against this at the right numbers, but its definitely not without risk.  It would appear that the numbers Colon is looking for are higher than the Mets liking.  Andy Martino recently tweeted the following:

I am told Mets likely not serious players for Bartolo Colon. Too pricey.
— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) December 9, 2013

So, there's that.