Las Vegas Has The Mets At 73.5 Wins

This week, the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook put out their predictions for the upcoming 2014 MLB season.  It's probably to no one's surprise that they have the Mets coming in with a total of 73.5 wins.  They are also 25-1 odds of being the NL East champions this season, which to me really doesn't seem that high considering the negativity surrounding this team.  I'll give my take on the Mets in a moment, but onto to the rest of the NL East.

The Hilton has the NL East as follows:

Wins
Atlanta - 87.5
Washington - 87.5
Philly - 76
METS - 73.5
Miami - 69.5

Division Odds
Atlanta - even money
Washington - even money
Philly - 12-1
METS - 25-1
Miami - 30-1

I think for the most part, there are no shocking totals here.  The division could and probably should come down to Atlanta and Washington.  This is pretty much on line with how the season finished last season.  All of the teams, including the two at the top, have some question marks, but I think this is fair.

The Mets finished with 74 wins last year, which means Vegas is essentially saying that they haven't improved or gotten worse.  I'm going to pick the over.  I don't care if I get ridiculed for it, I don't think it's a bad bet.  I also don't think its a sure thing.  But I expect this team to be better for a few reasons.

First off, I really don't think that the play from our first basemen and short stop can get any worse than it did last year.  Last year was probably rock bottom for both Ike and Duda, as well as Tejada.  In the past, these guys have all shown they can handle big league pitching, and for whatever excuse they each had, they were all just awful in 2013.  Tejada and Duda both went to the performance camp this winter, and I expect that gains were made from it.  So it's not unreasonable to see improvements from the two black holes we had last season.

Secondly, I expect Travis d'Arnaud to be better in 2014.  He did not impress in his call up last season.  Let's not forget though, prior to his promotion, he played only 99 baseball games in 23 months since the end of the 2012 minor league season.  I'm not making excuses for him, but I consider last year a wash. He was working his way back into shape and had all sorts of pressure on him. This year he comes back to camp, hopefully in shape and healthy.  He has shown he can hit in his minor league career.  Although I am not expecting him to be Mike Piazza, I think he still can be one of the better catchers in the game  After April last year, we got zero production from behind the plate.  Black hole number three should be filled.

My next point is that I think the addition of Curtis Granderson will help David Wright more than people think.  Even thought he has his faults, Granderson is a bona fide power hitter and a good clubhouse presence.  I think having him in the line-up will take a lot of pressure off Wright.  I know people are saying that Granderson only replaces Marlon Byrd, but let's look at it from start to finish.  Byrd wasn't even playing every day in April and May.  And in those months, he was hitting .240 with 6 home runs.  He didn't get hot until June.  So at the beginning of the season, what did Marlon Byrd do for David Wright?  Not much of anything.  Having a guy like Granderson in the line-up on opening day is good for every one's psyche, especially Wright's.

Moving on, even without Harvey, the Mets still have solid pitching.  The rotation is deeper this year.  Harvey is being replaced by another all-star pitcher.  Ok, am I really comparing Colon to Harvey?  No.  But as long as he is healthy, how much worse is Colon going to be, in a pitchers park against the NL? He is going to be fine.  I'd like to think Wheeler will improve, although I'm not expecting a Harvey like rise to stardom in year two.  Either way, the guy can chuck it.  Dillon Gee really took a big leap last year.  And don't forget, he started off terribly in 2013.  But he was coming off the surgery to remove the blood clot from his pitching arm.  When he finally got his arm strength back, he was as reliable as anyone in the rotation. Although I am not expecting him to match his Post May-2013, I think he will be steady and give the team a chance. Niese is Niese. You know what you're getting. As for the fifth spot, I'm really hoping Mejia gets it.  If he does, then I think top to bottom the Mets rotation is as deep and competitive as almost any team in the National League.  This rotation is much improved over last years opening day rotation of Neise, Harvey, Marcum, Gee and Hefner.

The X-factor for this team is going to be Chris Young.  I'm not expecting much.  However I hold on to hope that the former all-star spent this offseason trying to rediscover himself in search of a multiyear deal after 2014.  You've seen it before.  Guys all of a sudden turn on a light when it's time to get paid.  I'm not banking on it, but it'll be big for this team if he somehow can have a Byrd like resurgance.

A lot of what I just said was obviously just assumption.  Like I've said in the past, I'm not an expert, and I won't pretend to be.  The oddsmakers in Vegas are very good at what they do, and I'm sure they have their legitimate reasons why they think the Mets are a 73-74 win team. For the hell of it though, I'm going to give my over/under. As the roster stands right now, my over under is 78.5 wins. If they wind up signing Drew, I'll make that 81.5. I'm obviously banking on a lot of things to go right for this team.  But I expect players who spent their offseason trying hard to become better ball players to actually be better ball players. I don't think that's all that crazy a notion. And if they are better ball players, then they're a better baseball team. I'll also could just be unusually optimistic this morning.  Who knows?  If I wrote this exactly when I woke up today, I might have been singing a different tune. Either way, call me a homer or a shill or whatever you want.  I don't think What I wrote is all that outlandish.

I know most will disagree with me.  Give me the business on Twitter @GetsThruBuckner.

The 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

I'll start by laying out my feelings regarding the Baseball Hall of Fame so you have a point of reference regarding my opinions. I am of the opinion that there are far...FAR...too many people in the Hall of Fame. To me, it is now the Hall of Pretty Good. I believe the Hall should be reserved for the behemoths, the truly dominant forces of baseball. I'm sorry, Kirby Puckett just is not a Hall of Famer...neither is Goose Gossage, neither is Bert Blyleven, neither is Jim Rice, Andre Dawson or Bruce Sutter. All good, all-star players that were perhaps great at times. None a dominant force.

Moreover, and I'll get it right out there, I would not vote for anyone who tested positive, is very strongly linked, or admitted to using steroids or human growth hormone. Mere suspicion isn't enough for me to hypothetically not vote for a player as I do not with to partake in a witch hunt nor ignore an entire era...but that means you Barry, Roger, Rafi and Sammy.

Now down to 2014. It was announced today that Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, and Tom Glavine will be entering the Hall. These are all quite obviously correct. As I tweeted just after the vote was announced, I consider Greg Maddux to be the greatest pitcher I ever saw pitch and Frank Thomas to be the third greatest right-handed hitter I ever saw swing the bat. As for Tom Glavine...I don't like you and I never will and you can't make me.

Frank Thomas is the 3rd best right handed hitter I ever saw swing a bat. Greg Maddux is the best pitcher I've ever seen throw. Screw you Tom
— Timbo (@joshuetree) January 8, 2014

In addition, Craig Biggio fell short of enshrinement by just two votes garnering 74.8 of the votes cast. That is up from the previous year. Biggio will make it next year...and I believe deservedly so.

What may be most important to Mets fans is that, while Mike Piazza did not make the required 75% of the vote this time around, he is trending upwards. In 2013 Piazza received 57.8 of the vote while receiving 62.2% of the vote in 2014. It may take a couple of years, but it appears Mike may get into the Hall - but will he wear our hat?

What I find most interesting about the 2014 ballot is how it treated the cheaters. Not only did Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens receive a smaller percentage of the vote in 2014 than they received in 2013, but Rafael Palmeiro only received 4.4% of the vote, falling short of the required 5% to remain on the ballot for next year. I find this to be wonderful news. While this could be the byproduct of what many Hall voters considered to be a very crowded ballot, if the trend continues, they will likely never get in, and that puts a smile on this Met fan's face.

Another interesting tid-bit....Armando Benitez....received a vote. You read that right. One voter voted for Armando Benitez. This voter, along with the 16 voters who did not vote for Greg Maddux, should have their votes taken away, be banned from all major league ballparks, and be forced to cover the WNBA for the rest of eternity.

Bartolo Colon Signing Isn't A Bust

Colon finished 6th in AL Cy Young voting in 2013.

As of today, the Mets have agreed to a 2 year, $20 million dollar deal with RHP starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (18-6 2.65), pending a physical.

Mets fans might be confused as to why a rebuilding team might make a "let's win now" move such as this. Why bring on a 40 year-old to lead such a young rotation with other, perhaps more durable options on the table?

Of the notable FA starters New York may have inked this offseason, the following remained unsigned as of December 11th: Bronson Arroyo, AJ Burnett, Chris Capuano, Matt Garza, Aaron Harang, Ubaldo Jimenez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Pelfrey, Ervin Santana, and Johan Santana.

Of those, Arroyo, Jimenez, and Ervin Santana were the only realistic options for Sandy Alderson to go after. However, Jimenez and Santana are entering their age 30 and 31 seasons, respectively, so neither would have accepted any offer less than 4-5 years at this stage in their careers.

Alderson is unwilling to give a multiyear contract to any starter this year leaving him with only, outside of Bartolo Colon, former Red Bronson Arroyo.

Over the past two seasons, Arroyo has gone 26-22, posting a 3.76 ERA in 404 innings. Colon, though four years older, has 28-15 record to a finer 2.99 ERA, though in 342.2 innings pitched.

Alleged PED's or no, Colon is clearly the better pitcher of late, and his age has only minimally affected his innings.

Money-wise, Arroyo is allegedly seeking a deal worth 3 years for $36 million, making him slightly more expensive, and the third year is what most likely killed any talks between his representation and the Mets front office.

Both guys are solid teammates and carry positive clubhouse influence, and either will have successfully ate the injured Matt Harvey's missing innings in 2014.

Colon is a proven veteran who will undoubtedly assist in the development of the Mets' young arms, especially with the experience of more collected hardware than Bronson Arroyo has to brag about.

Sandy Alderson got a solid long-timer for a cheap price, on top of Colon's stellar season last year, I'm not sure what else Mets fans could have wanted.

Personally, I'm thrilled.

(Tweet me @brykrunyon51)

Harvey's Injury No Justification For Delaying Spending

As soon as the news about Matt Harvey's injury, and his likelihood of missing 2014, hit the headlines, the feeling of doom was almost palpable. 2014, once seen as a year when the Mets would begin to fulfill some of their promise, was going to be one more year of incompetence on a budget, fielding bargain basement players while we await Harvey's return.

Don't accept that answer. Refuse to be okay with waiting, again.

Matt Harvey was an incredible revelation but he was also just that: a revelation. While there was a lot of expectations on his future, nobody expected him to be what he was this year. His absence in the rotation leaves Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler, and Dillon Gee, supplemented by either a veteran presence or two of the franchise's highly touted prospects. Pitching will not be what holds this team back, and makes using Harvey as a rationalization to not spend nonsense.

They sold the fans on a three year plan, and spent this year telling us how exciting our future is. Guess what: It's time for the future. It's time to take some of the great prospects you've gotten and build a team around them. Field a big league ball club in 2014, or risk disenfranchising perhaps the most loyal fan base in baseball. We've stuck with the team through thin and thinner; we expect them to keep their promises. I truly believe Sandy wants to crack the purse strings open this offseason and next in an effort to build a real contender. It's up to the Wilpons to give him the green light to do so.

No more excuses, guys. It's been long enough.

Follow me on Twitter @kmflemming