Why the Mets SHOULD Rely on the 2015 Free Agent Shortstop Class

I like to fancy myself someone who could be a Major League Baseball general manager. I have business experience. I have many years of baseball experience. I also have delusions of grandeur. This all adds up to me sitting on the couch planning how I would run a profession baseball franchise.

I would be the picture of patience. I would shy away from free agents almost entirely in order to build an extraordinary stable of big, strong, talented starting pitchers who were cheap and under control. In the field, I would attempt to develop as best I could, with the aim being towards creating a nice set of cost effective role players and bottom of the line-up guys. When I see my window open, let's say...a 2-3 year window where my pitching stars have all aligned, I'd go out and spend. I nab two big bats with power. I nab a speed guy in the infield. I nab a big lefty SP. I take a chance on a couple of bullpen guys, though I do not spend a lot because bullpen guys are fickle.  I hope this not only blows my window wide open, but extends it another year or two. Then at the end, when the window closes, I rid myself of the baggage as best I can in hopes of starting over again. This is how I feel a team without Yankee/Dodger/Sawx money should work.

Accordingly - I disagree with my esteemed colleague, Rob Patterson, who contends the Mets should not rely on the 2015 Free Agent Shortstop class to fill their current and future short stop needs. Let's face it - the Mets are not winning the World Series in 2014. Harvey...out. Wheeler...young. Syndergaard...nothing but a twinkle as of yet. d'Arnaud...who knows. Our window is still being set up. It has yet to open. That means there is no rush. 

Mr. Patterson points out that next year's free agent class will include names at short such as Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie and Yunel Escobar. You can add veterans Nick Punto and Mike Aviles to that list. That is an awfully deep market. While, as Mr. Patterson notes, the competition for Ramirez will be fierce and I would be betting my farm on the Yankees (especially if they get under $189M this year), the competition at the middle tier should not be as such. This off season included two big(ish) names...Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta. Peralta signed early as he was the "big name". No other shortstop has signed for any significant money as of yet and pitchers and catchers report in a matter of weeks. Next year will be even deeper. I don't envision the competition for the Lowrie's, Cabrera's and Hardy's of the world being that difficult, particularly with a decent set of lower tier players beneath them - much like this year.

In addition to the deep market at shortstop in the 2015 free agent class, there are potential deep markets at first base, second base, and right field. I would be willing to put Nick Punto at short-stop if it meant I could take a run at Billy Butler at first. I would take Mike Aviles at short, if I also had Colby Rasmus in left and Norichika Aoki in right. The decision to get a shortstop now versus relying on a potential 2015 class does not solely rely on the short stop class. You have to factor in what else you can do. Right now, there isn't much else the Mets can do. Next year, that will not be the case.

My point is the Mets do not need a shortstop right now. Stephen Drew is a good player, but he does not a championship team make. The Mets would be better off being patient, sticking to their guns with Drew for a short cheap deal, and if he decided to go elsewhere, we have 7 short-stops and a wide array of other options next year to choose from. This at a time when Harvey will come back, Wheeler will be primed, Syndergaard will have some experience, and we will know what we have in d'Arnaud. The window opens in 2015, let's try not to jump out of it until then.

Someone Tell Sandy to Leave the Sunblock Home

   I'm really looking forward to the next few days. After the Granderson signing, I'm hoping this front office gains some momentum. The free agent market is thinning out but there's anticipation the Mets are going to be active in the trade market. Right now Sandy leaves cold NYC and heads to sunny Orlando with two mediocre (I'm being kind because of the holiday season) first basemen, a very tradable second baseman and a stockpile of young pitching.

  
   Frankly, I don't care which first baseman gets traded. It's not a secret that I despise Lucas Duda. I don't care what the saber nerds say.  I hate him. I hate that a guy with his power watches fastballs down the middle. I hate that he used not liking playing the outfield as an excuse for being a shitty hitter. I hate that girls think he's cute, so it's good enough for them that he sucks. Despite my disdain, I am willing to go into next year with him as the starting first baseman, as long as we have a better team around him. I think Ike Davis has more upside and is more valuable. This likely means getting something better in return, when coupled with some other pieces.

  
   I'm sick of hearing Matt Joyce's name. I don't want them trading a starting first baseman for a guy to be used in a platoon. They have 3 capable starting outfielders, despite each one of their faults. The Mets need a shortstop. I'd rather have Chris Young playing every day then going into another season with Ruben Tejada.

  
   I'd be willing to part with Murphy and Davis in a package to bring back an above average SS. I love Murph. I was a Murphy fan before it was cool and people came up with dumb hash tags about him. I don't think Murph is part of the problem. But I like winning baseball games better, and I'm willing to throw player loyalty out the window for this to happen.  Don't forget, the Mets need some pitching and bullpen too.  So keeping one average player around, fan favorite or not, isn't going to make or break a team with multiple holes.  Whatever it take's to improve this team, I'm all for it. 

  
   Either way, this isn't about Davis, Duda, Murphy or Tejada.  This is about Sandy continuing to make things happen.  This is about Sandy finishing his plan.  He said that moves were going to be made to field a competitive team for 2014.  This is his big chance to prove people wrong.  Everyone has been real critical of Sandy.  He knows it.  I'm sure the Wilpon's know it.  It's time for Sandy to finish what he started.  Its gonna be 85 and sunny down there.  I hope Sandy spends his time in the hotel and not on the beach.

Mets Continue To Be Reactive In Free Agency

For all the talk we hear about the Mets looking forward and being proactive towards building a better, sustainable baseball team, they certainly are reactive when it comes to the free agent market.  Its never been much of a secret that the Mets would be operating on a fixed budget of sorts this winter, so why not set the market, rather than react to it.

Free agent prices sent skyward starting with San Francisco's extension of Hunter Pence to the tune of 5 year/$90 million dollars.  That deal set the market price on the higher end of the outfield market.  Marlon Bryd's deal, which could be as much at 3 years/$24 million dollars, set the market price on the lower end.  Each deal greatly impacted what the Mets could accomplish this winter.

The same can be said for the pitching market, which saw Latroy Hawkins exit for a mere $2.5 million guarantee from the Rockies.  More recently, it was Phil Hughes' 3 year/$24 million dollar deal in Minnesota that may eventually impact the Mets pursuit of Bronson Arroyo.  These guys aren't getting cheaper, and the Mets are getting increasingly likely to be left out in the cold.

The notion here isn't to argue whether or not free agents are worth the contracts they're getting.  In many cases they are not, but it remains apparent that team's always overpay for quality talent. That is especially true when teams are looking to rebuild a franchise on questionable financial grounds in a stadium that players are less than thrilled to play in.  The Mets have a variety of hurdles they must clear when they enter the market.

And yes, I realize its not as simple as saying the Mets need to act first.  Players wait out the market in an effort to see if their value will increase.  They may have desires of playing for a contender and see the Mets as their backup plan.  However, the Mets need to make things happen.  They cannot afford to "see whats left" later on in the winter, as Sandy Alderson has now alluded to.

The Mets may have had genuine interest in being active this winter, but by not getting out in front of the market they have allowed things to spiral out of control.  Misreading the market several years ago cost Sandy Alderson a chance to resign Jose Reyes.  This winter it may cost Alderson the offseason renovation the Mets have been promising their fans for years.

The Mets Lack Of Free Agent Spending

If you include the money spent on outfielder Chris Young last week, the New York Mets have now spent just $30,850,000 over the course of the last FOUR offseasons.  That is almost mind numbing when you think about the fact that five teams have already spent more than that this winter alone.

Some notable "small market" teams who've dwarfed the frugal Mets over the past four years...  Kansas City has invested $78.175MM.  Oakland (the Moneyball capital of the baseball world) has dropped $51.25MM.  Even Tampa Bay and Seattle, two teams who are yet to make a move this winter have spent $42.075MM and $33.1MM, respectively.

Its become borderline comical that the Mets, who reside in the largest market in baseball, cannot manager to find their checkbook.  This winter appears not different, with front office personnel tripping over one another to gripe to the media about free agent prices.

Here is a look at how things shape up this winter to date:

1) NY Yankees ($85MM)
2) St. Louis ($52MM)
3) Philadelphia ($42MM)
4) San Francisco ($36MM)
5) Kansas City ($32MM)
6) Cleveland ($12MM)
7) LA Dodgers ($10MM)
8) San Diego ($8MM)
9) NY Mets ($7.25MM)
10) Texas ($3.80MM)
11) Oakland ($3MM)
12) Colorado ($2.5MM)

Obviously things can change, with the Mets supposedly looking to add an impact bat in right field.  However, fans remain increasingly skeptical.  With reports that Alderson has roughly another $20MM you spend this winter things won't be changing that much.  At some point, someone has to ask the team's front office this: "If you won't spend money on players, how can you expect fans to spend money on tickets?"