UPDATE --> Timetable: Mets 2014 Payroll Expectations

As the offseason has trudged forward we have heard rumor after rumor of the Mets being priced out on a variety of players.  With $55 million dollars coming off the books, how could that even be possible?  Nonetheless, here is a look at how payroll expectations have changed over the pays five months:

6/11/13: Joel Sherman reports in the NY Post that Sandy Alderson believes the 2014 payroll will land between $90 and $100 million dollars, meaning the Alderson will have between $35 and $45 million dollars to spend.

9/30/13: ESPN's Adam Rubin reports that Alderson has roughly $35 million dollars to spend this winter, and that fans should expect the team's payroll to drop slightly from its $95 million dollar level from 2013.

11/19/13: ESPN reports that Sandy Alderson believes the 2014 payroll will be no lower than it was in 2013, using a figure of $87 million.

11/21/13: John Harper of the NY Daily News reports that Sandy Alderson has just $25 to $30 million dollars to spend this winter, which would result in an estimated payroll between  $80 and $85 million in 2014.

12/8/13: Sandy Alderson tells the team's press corp that he believes the 2014 payroll will be no lower than it was in 2013, using a figure of $85 million ($2 million less than he reported on 11/19/13).

The team's projections for next season continue to trend downward despite the recent signing of medium ticket free agent, Curtis Granderson.  Meanwhile, Fox Sports reported Ken Rosenthal reported that the Mets do not have a strict offseason budget.  So is this more smoke and mirrors from the Sandy Alderson front office, or have things changed yet again.  We'll have a better idea by the end of this week in Orlando.

Mets Are Worth More Than $2 Billion...Wait, What?

According to ESPN's Adam Rubin who cites a Bloomberg report, the New York Mets appraise for an estimated $2.050 billion dollars.  That's right...nine zeros after the two.  Rubin notes that the value factors in the team's stake in SNY, which accounts for more than half of the appraisal.  The report places the Mets as the fourth most valuable franchise in Major League Baseball, behind only the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox.

So let me get this straight.  A team mired in despair for the better part of a decade now, plus a network that fewer and fewer people watch every year, are worth $2 billion dollars.  Oh, the perks of playing in the big city!

All jokes aside this is probably really good news for the Mets, who will look to refinance their debt this winter.  If successful, its believe that the Mets will have more spending money, which could potentially lead to a higher payroll, better players and a better team (theoretically of course).  The Wilpons equity, or lack thereof, in both entities will certainly play a role in that process.  So, the higher the value the better their equity stance will be.

Basically, 90% of this is above my head.  I have an advanced degree, but its definitely not in finance.  So from where I'm sitting, this definitely isn't bad news.  With loan payments, interest payments and the like coming due, the Wilpons will need all the help they can get.

Nobody Wants Wally Backman

You won't be shocked to learn that not a single organization has called on the Mets for permission to speak with Las Vegas 51s manager, Wally Backman.  Amazing, isn't it?  A manager known more for his YouTube exploits and arrest record than his coaching abilities doesn't have teams beating down the door to get to him.

This of course hasn't prevented an almost cult following of those who appreciate profanity filled tirades and 1986 nostalgia.  A group that was adamant that he replace embattled skipper, Terry Collins, this winter.  A group that was somehow surprised that Backman wasn't even considered for the gig before the front office extended Collins' contract last month.

As a result, it appears he will remain with the organization..the only one that will give him a chance. He may eventually make his way onto the major league coaching staff, but that time is not now.  As reported by ESPN's Adam Rubin, the Mets expect he will return to Las Vegas and continue to wait his turn in 2014.

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Now to be honest, I've never watched a Las Vegas 51s game.  So I couldn't tell you what type of manager he is, but then again neither can most of you.  What I take away from this is the fact that Backman obviously doesn't have the value some Mets fans think he does.  I just hope that when he does warrant promotion to the big league staff (and he will), he doesn't immediately become the elephant in the room.  Until then..back to Vegas he goes.

Trade Unlikely, But Murphy Is Available

Photo Courtesy of @Lets86It

ESPN's Adam Rubin wrote yesterday that the team appears destine to go the arbitration route with  the likes of Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee and Daniel Murphy.  Each figures to be a key piece of the team going forward, but none need to be locked up long term just yet.  They are all under team control for at least another two seasons.

Rubin also cited a source within the organization who indicated that the Mets will listen to trade offers for Murphy, who will be 29 just after the start of next season.  Murphy is coming off a very strong year at the plate for a second baseman, batting .286 while having 188 hits, 13 home runs and 78 runs batted in.  A similar season in 2014 would see Murphy in line for quite a pay day next winter.  Unfortunately, his suitors may be limited elsewhere due to inconsistent defense at second.

Ultimately, as the source tells Rubin, all signs point to Murphy staying with the Mets.  The team has too many holes on its roster as it is to turn around and open another, unless Murphy become part of a trade package.  Then all bets are off.

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I'm still not at high on Murphy as the #ImWith28 crowd, but he's earned everything his gotten with the Mets.  He has moved to second base because that's where the team needed him and although the transition hasn't been without its speed bumps, Murphy has settled into the position nicely.  He remains an ideal two hitter because he can work the count so well.  I respect what he's accomplished and hope to see him with the team going forward, but he isn't irreplaceable, so I'm happy to see the Mets are willing to improve if possible.

Nobody Wants To Watch The Mets

In what should come as a surprise to no one, people aren't tuning in to watch the New York Mets.  In fact, the Mets television audience was slashed by nearly one third.  As cited by ESPN's Adam Rubin, the Mets saw their television ratings fall from 2.25% of households during the 2012 season to only 1.54% of households in 2013.  MetsBlog's Matt Cerrone, extrapolated those figures out to determine that only 120,000 households were tuning in on a nightly basis in 2013, compared to 190,000 the year prior.  Matt also does well to mention that much of SNY's revenue is determined on subscription fees, rendering the number of people tuning in far less important.

Also worth noting that the Mets sold only 2,135,657 tickets this season.  That's a mere 26,695 per night and finds the team fall into the bottom third of the league in attendance.  That represents 1,340 fewer tickets sold per game than in 2012.  Bear in mind that none of these measures accurately account for how few people actually made it out to Citi Field and the financial losses the team experienced as a result for things like concessions and parking.

Ultimately, whether the blame be laid at the feet of television or actually attendance, revenue is down.  Not good for a franchise that so often cites ticket sales as a driving force behind team payroll.  The Mets have fielded a poor product in recent years.  As a result, fewer fans are buying.  None of these can help in the organization's effort to restructure its debt this winter.  That too can greatly impact the team's payroll going forward.  Scary times to be a Mets fan...for those of us that are left.

Where Will Wilmer Wind Up?

TC said AAA if non-starter. MT @Canzo18: You've said Flores isn't considered SS so what do you think his role is next year with wright back?
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) September 19, 2013

According the ESPN's Adam Rubin, Terry Collins has said that if Wilmer Flores cannot crack the Mets starting lineup next season, he will return to AAA where he can play on a daily basis.  On the surface that makes sense, but I think there is a much better chance Flores ends up with another organization than him landing in the Mets minor league system next summer.

Collin's makes reference to Flores playing every day, but he has been unable to do that late this season (due in part to injury) with a much less formidable lineup in place than the organization hopes to have next winter.  The company line on Flores is that his bat will have to carry him.  Will that bat has managed only a .211 average and just a .250 on-base percentage this season.  Those aren't the type of numbers he needs to make up for his shoddy defense.

The Mets simply don't have a place for Flores right now and won't unless he learns to play first place.  Despite the fact that some fans are still enamored with his bat, Wilmer is much more likely to be a complimentary piece in a trade for an impact player this winter.  He has upside, to a team who needs a young third baseman with the ability to mash.  The Mets don't.  If he does happen to find his way to AAA next season, it will only be to keep him fresh to fill in should someone fall victim or injury, or continue to showcase his talents for an eventual trade down the line.

Flores isn't long for Queens, no matter how well he hits in my opinion.

Mets Secure Another Losing Season

In losing the first game of yesterday's doubleheader, the Mets have lost 82 games this season and in the process have secured a fifth consecutive losing season.  As per ESPN's Adam Rubin, the organization has had only three worse stretches: Two stretches of seven years taking place from 1962 to 1968 and again from 1977 to 1983, then another period of six years from 1991 to 1996.

Times are tough in Queens, as illustrated by the maybe 5,000 fans in attendance for the night cap yesterday.  Some question whether things are set to get better or worst next season.

Plenty has been said this week about the Pittsburgh Pirates securing their first winning season since 1992.  Now that that streak is over, its important to note that by season's end the Mets and Astros will be deadlocked as the only team's to not have a winning season since 2008.

Call them inept, incompetent, or flat broke.  Fan morale has reached new lows this season for good reason.  The Mets must make strides this winter before the franchise becomes irrelavent in the New York sports landscape, because right now its five seasons and counting...

Photo Courtesy of @Lets86It