Mets Winter Meeting Theme: Progress

The Mets had a productive week in the most magical place in the world.  In addition to introducing the recently signed Curtis Granderson to the world on Tuesday, the team inked former Cy-Young Award winner, Bartolo Colon.

In addition to immediately improving their 2014 roster, the Mets announced to the rest of the baseball community, and more importantly their fans, that they have an interest in winning again.  The deals that they made were not blockbusters, but were slight overpays to mid-range free agents with quality talent.  That's a vast departure from the previous three offseasons that saw the team pick through the bottom of the barrel.

In addition to these moves, its hope that the team's front office also made the connections necessary to soon move first baseman, Ike Davis.  With supply now falling short of demand, Alderson may have waited out the market long enough to create a bidding war between the likes of Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh.  At a minimum, Ike's departure will serve as a salary dump which can be used to address the bullpen.  Maximum sees the Mets get back a quality prospect.

Moving forward the Mets have two major areas left to address.  The team was unable to find traction (that we know of) in securing an upgrade at short stop.  Stephen Drew appears to be a long shot, so the Mets will turn to the trade market.  There are potential suitors, but other dominoes will have to fall first.  Finally, the team met with the agents for several relief pitchers as Alderson hopes to secure the back end of the pen, due to the uncertain health of Bobby Parnell.

All in all, a good week for the Mets and their fans.  If nothing else, a bit of an olive branch was extended from ownership to the masses.  While there is more work to be done, there is at least some optimism action will occur.  That alone is progress..something we haven't seen here in quite some time.

Mets Winter Meetings Day Three Recap

With fans talking one another off the proverbial ledge, the Mets finally struck oil on the third day of the winter meetings.  Here were the biggest stories of the day:

- The Mets signed 40 year old Bartolo Colon to a 2 year/$20 million dollar deal (HERE).  Coming off of an 18-6 year with the Athletics in which he posted a 2.65 ERA, he will serve as the innings eater the Mets set out to find this winter.

- The market for Ike Davis was given a midday boost when the Marlins signed Corey Hart (HERE), and then almost immediately traded for Logan Morrison.  As a result, the Brewers, Rays and Pirates remain in the market for a first baseman (HERE).

- The Mets met with Scott Boras, the agent for Stephen Drew (HERE), who is reportedly seeking a two year deal worth between $25 and $30 million dollars (HERE).

- Daniel Murphy is now unlikely to be traded (HERE).

Mets Sign Bartolo Colon

Correction: Mets and Colon still talking. But are discussing 2 year deal. NOT FINAL YET. Correcting previous tweet.
— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) December 11, 2013

I don't know why, by Sweeny Murti sure has had his ear to the ground for all things New York Mets this week. He just reported that the Mets are close to signing Bartolo Colon to a two year deal.

Sources: #Mets, Colon in agreement on two-year, $20M deal, pending physical.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2013

That has now been confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Two years, $20 million dollars for the veteran who will turn 41 years old next season. He is coming off a phenomenal year with the Oakland A's in which he posted a 18-6 record with a 2.65 ERA.

This is an overpay, and if I had to guess will be poorly received by most Mets fans. The Mets were out to get an innings eater, and they've gotten one in Colon who has pitched 152 innings or more in each of the past three season. I'm interested to see how this effects the rest of the offseason. I'm almost prepared to throw any budget estimate out the window, as this dries up any remaining cash the Mets reported had this winter. I can't see how Alderson spends his remaining funds on a move like this, regardless of the upside it has.

The Mets Still Have Time To Improve Upon Offseason

As we push into the latter half of the third day of the MLB Winter Meetings, the Mets are yet to do anything with improves the 2014 roster.  Hopes of unloading Ike Davis reportedly appear to hinge on decisions of others.  The team's demands for Daniel Murphy, the only other position players likely to be traded this week, have cooled his market.  And finally, the Mets appear to only be in on one year, very low risk starting pitcher to round out the rotation.

Things aren't looking good.  And yes.. I get your frustration.  Several years of waiting have lead up to this winter and as other players come off the board, you fear that the Mets will fall short.  However, there is still time.  Take a hypothetical walk with me for a minute.

Now that Cory Hart has decided on the Mariners, it opens up the possibility for a deal that sends Ike Davis to the Brewers for Tyler Thornburg.  It accomplishes two things.  It removed a little more than three million in payroll and slots Thornburg into the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation.  Where do the Mets go from here?  Some times its the move after the first move that is the end game, and in this case there are two options.

Thornburg's acquisition may make other pitchers, in this case we'll say Rafael Montero, expendable.  The Arizona Diamondbacks, who are seeking starting pitching, have a backlog of quality shortstops.  Is it possible that the Mets could unload a player like Montero in exchange for the shortstop piece they entered the offseason so desperate to find?  The other more obvious route would be that the payroll freed up by trading Ike Davis can assist the Mets in acquiring the likes of Stephen Drew.

What I'm getting at is, although you have to look closely, the writing remains on the wall that the Mets can still accomplish their goals this season.  They have money remaining, and may have more than originally thought once moves are made.  I'm not saying this will necessarily happen, but its certainly possible.  This offseason has been slow, but its not as if Sandy Alderson's methodical approach should be new to anyone.

The Mets still have plenty of work to do if they intend to field a much improved roster next year.  Its not going to be easy, but its still possible.

Mets Winter Meeting Day Two Recap

Two days in the books down in Orlando and the Mets are yet to do anything to improve their roster for 2014.  Here were the major rumors, news and notes from yesterday:

- Curtis Granderson was introduced at 12:30, wearing the number three.  In the coverage that followed, Grandson told the media that the Mets were the only team to offer him a four year deal (HERE).  He also went on to say "true New Yorkers are Mets Fans (HERE), which was received by the rival parties about as well as you'd expect.

- There was a report that the Mets were pushing hard to sign Bronson Arroyo (HERE), but that news was quickly written off by sources closer to the team (HERE).

- A day after meeting with Bartolo Colon, the Mets were tied to interest in a plethora of veterans who would likely be seeking a one year deal, to include Johan Santana (HERE).

- A week after non-tendering him after what many would call a surprising season, the Mets resigned Jeremy Hefner to a minor league deal (HERE).  He will rehab and prepare for 2015.

- The Mets with several teams regarding Ike Davis, to include the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays.  It appears the Mets are looking to acquire pitching in return for Davis' services (HERE).

Suitors For Ike Davis Are Dropping Fast

Don't look now, but at least two of the four teams reported to be interested in Ike Davis have dropped out of the race.  Bad news for the Mets who indicated heading into the Winter Meetings that there priority would be to trade Davis.

The first to fall was the Arizona Diamondbacks who have a backlog of shortstops, a position the Mets are desperate to fill.  ESPN's Adam Rubin reported the following this morning:

According to media friend, Mets and Diamondbacks met and did not find common ground.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) December 10, 2013

Next up was the Milwaukee Brewers, whom the Mets have been linked to multiple times this offseason. In this instance it was fellow blog Metsmerized who determined:

Talks with Brewers for Ike Davis are now dead. Team Exec told us they are now focusing their attention on Corey Hart. More later...
— Mets Merized Online (@MetsMerized) December 10, 2013

The only other team confirmed to have shown an interest in Ike Davis is the Tampa Bay Rays.  They too have been linked to the Mets several times this offseason and would appear to be a logical fit for Davis.  Nothing has been said this week about the two, but one this is certain, if the Mets hope to move Davis and resolve their uncertainty at first base, their options appear limited.

Mets Winter Meetings Day One Recap

The MLB Winter Meetings got underway yesterday in Orlando, FL and after a slow morning really ramped up in the late afternoon.  Here is the least you should know from day one:

-  There are as many as four teams who've spoken to the Mets about possibly trading for Ike Davis. (HERE)

-  The Mets met with free agent pitcher, Bartolo Colon, who is likely out of the Mets price range because he is seeking a deal of around $10 million dollars next year. (HERE)

-  The Mets would prefer to add a pitcher on a one year deal, but will discuss multi-year deals if necessary. (HERE)

-  Curtis Granderson passed his physical, making his 4 year/$60 million dollar deal with the Mets official.  He will be introduced at a press conference on Tuesday in Orlando. (HERE)

-  The Mets remain open to trading Daniel Murphy for the return (HERE), but some question if the Mets will find any takers. (HERE)

Mets Continue To Lower Expectations

I'm confused...  In a matter of a few days the Mets have gone from delivering the biggest acquisition of the Sandy Alderson era, to once again returning to a dialogue which does little more than lower expectations.  It just doesn't add up.

Coming into the winter the Mets were seemingly poised to renovate the roster.  Thus far they've handed out a very questionable one year, $7.25 million dollar contract to Chris Young and another much more justifiable four year, 60 million dollar contract to Curtis Granderson.  They even took the time to back load Granderson's contract to maintain most payroll flexibility headed into 2014.

Since then they've lowered their target payroll, told their fans they're out of the free agent market and that they are prepared to open the season having not upgraded their number one priority this winter, short stop.  I understand that things happen.  Perhaps there was no way to make a significant upgrade at short, but take that money and distribute it elsewhere.  Alderson himself said today that the team can manage with Tejada starting at short stop if the team around him has improved, but all the dialogue suggests that short of a trade or two, this offseason shopping spree is just about complete.

Fans are frustrated, and justifiably so.  I don't expect Sandy Alderson to lay his playbook on the table.  There are 29 other general managers in Orlando looking to get the best deal's possible.  I understand that some of what Alderson says is lip service, but my god, let fans be excited for a few days before your rip them down to reality.

Things are going to happen this week.  I'm certain of that. What transpires may ultimately determine whether this winter was worth it, but I like many, am starting to have my doubts.

Daniel Murphy On The Move?

The following tweet from Andy Martino should tell you all you need to know about the Mets approach to the MLB Winter Meetings this week:

At least one rival team has been already been told #Mets willing to move Daniel Murphy this week.
— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) December 9, 2013

It was only a few days ago that Newsday's Marc Carig reported that the Mets we're actively looking to trade Murphy, but it doesn't surprise me that he would be moved in the right deal.

The Mets don't have a lot of money, but they do have some trade chips.  Murphy is one of those chips and represents one of only two or three who are major league capable at this point.  If the Mets are going to add to their 2014 roster via trade, he may be required to acquire someone of note.

I like Murphy.  He's second best hitter on the team and has developed into a decent second baseman.  However, if the team can flip him for a quality shortstop its a move I would have to make.  As I've written before it has to be an offensive oriented move because the team cannot sacrifice its offense next season to fill a hole at the back end of its rotation.

Expect his name early and often in the rumor mill, because he will be a hot topic all week long in Orlando.

Mets Met With Bartolo Colon's Agent Today

Mets had meeting today with agent for Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65 in 30 starts, 190 IP for Oak in 2013).
— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) December 9, 2013

Some Mets news from an unlikely source, Sweety Murti is the Yankees beat writer for WFAN and he's reporting that the Mets brass had a meeting with Bartolo Colon's agent.

This is undoubtedly going to be met with overreaction from Mets fans.  As illustrated above, Colon had an excellent season in 2013.  With that said, he has thrown 152 or more innings in each of the last three seasons, after not doing so from 2006 to 2009.  If acquired, he would be the fourth starter for the Mets, who are in search of an innings eater to hold down the fort until the likes of Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard join the rotation.

Colon made $3 million dollars in 2013 and I have to assume would be in for some type of raise next year.  Its a viable option, if you willing to risk the fact that he's 41 years old with just shy of 2,600 innings on his arm.  I would assume Alderson would only be interested on a one year deal.  This is the type of low risk, high reward move that Alderson has become known for.

I'm not necessarily against this at the right numbers, but its definitely not without risk.  It would appear that the numbers Colon is looking for are higher than the Mets liking.  Andy Martino recently tweeted the following:

I am told Mets likely not serious players for Bartolo Colon. Too pricey.
— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) December 9, 2013

So, there's that.

Someone Tell Sandy to Leave the Sunblock Home

   I'm really looking forward to the next few days. After the Granderson signing, I'm hoping this front office gains some momentum. The free agent market is thinning out but there's anticipation the Mets are going to be active in the trade market. Right now Sandy leaves cold NYC and heads to sunny Orlando with two mediocre (I'm being kind because of the holiday season) first basemen, a very tradable second baseman and a stockpile of young pitching.

  
   Frankly, I don't care which first baseman gets traded. It's not a secret that I despise Lucas Duda. I don't care what the saber nerds say.  I hate him. I hate that a guy with his power watches fastballs down the middle. I hate that he used not liking playing the outfield as an excuse for being a shitty hitter. I hate that girls think he's cute, so it's good enough for them that he sucks. Despite my disdain, I am willing to go into next year with him as the starting first baseman, as long as we have a better team around him. I think Ike Davis has more upside and is more valuable. This likely means getting something better in return, when coupled with some other pieces.

  
   I'm sick of hearing Matt Joyce's name. I don't want them trading a starting first baseman for a guy to be used in a platoon. They have 3 capable starting outfielders, despite each one of their faults. The Mets need a shortstop. I'd rather have Chris Young playing every day then going into another season with Ruben Tejada.

  
   I'd be willing to part with Murphy and Davis in a package to bring back an above average SS. I love Murph. I was a Murphy fan before it was cool and people came up with dumb hash tags about him. I don't think Murph is part of the problem. But I like winning baseball games better, and I'm willing to throw player loyalty out the window for this to happen.  Don't forget, the Mets need some pitching and bullpen too.  So keeping one average player around, fan favorite or not, isn't going to make or break a team with multiple holes.  Whatever it take's to improve this team, I'm all for it. 

  
   Either way, this isn't about Davis, Duda, Murphy or Tejada.  This is about Sandy continuing to make things happen.  This is about Sandy finishing his plan.  He said that moves were going to be made to field a competitive team for 2014.  This is his big chance to prove people wrong.  Everyone has been real critical of Sandy.  He knows it.  I'm sure the Wilpon's know it.  It's time for Sandy to finish what he started.  Its gonna be 85 and sunny down there.  I hope Sandy spends his time in the hotel and not on the beach.

Trade Bait: Davis vs. Duda

Age at Opening Day 2014. Stats Per 162 Games Played

Take a good look at each of these goofballs, because there is a pretty good chance one of them isn't on the team this time next weekend.  Once last time for good measure, we're going to dive into who should stay and who should go.

Ike Davis' fall from grace has been epic.  He burst onto the scene in 2010 with surprising power and theatrical defense, immediately cementing him into the minds of Mets fans as our first baseman of the future.  Then came early May 2011 and an infield collision which cost him the rest of his season and seemingly changed the path of his career forever.  Davis would return to start the 2012 season, but would struggle mightily for months to find his head at the plate.  A late season surge allowed him to post a batting average of only .227, but he managed to clap 32 home runs.  2013 brought with it similar offensive struggles and a demotion to the minors.  There would be no crazy late season surge, resulting in a .205 batting average, only 9 home runs and questions of his future in Queens.

Lucas Duda's story is very different.  He has never spent a full season at the major league level, due in part to Davis' stronghold on his natural position, first base.  His bat, more specifically his power potential, would see the Mets try to find a spot for him in the outfield.  He struggled more often than not due to what many perceive as a lack of confidence, bringing his struggles in the field to the plate with him.  That experiment would mercifully come to an end in 2013 when an injury found him banished to the minors, only to be promoted immediately prior to an injury that subsequently ended Ike Davis year.  He would finish the season at first base, sparking a debate as to who should man the position going forward.

Who actually gets a chance to play first base next year for the New York Mets may be more tied to who has less trade value, than who the better player is.  Clearly, neither player is perfect.  Fans have soured on both, having sat through two frustrating seasons with Davis and Duda's almost circus like bouts with left field.  However, each may have their merits.

First and foremost, Davis is only one year removed from a 32 home run season.  That type of power production alone will turn heads.  He is still relatively young and won't make a ton of money next season.  That said, he will make at least $3 million more than Duda, who has shown better patience at the plate, hits to all fields and has significant power himself.  Who is better?  Maybe the correct question is who has the higher ceiling?  Will Ike Davis benefit from a change of scenery or does Duda's raw talent project better?

My personal opinion, I don't think either gives you a significant advantage over the other in 2014.  No matter who ends up with the gig, I think you'll be looking at a stat line of around .235/20/60.  If it were me, I'd look to unload Davis for two reasons.  First and foremost, he has proven power potential at the major league level whereas Duda has never hit more than 15 home runs in any one season.  Secondly and possible as important due to the Mets situation, trading Davis allows you to reallocate almost $4 million dollars to another part of the diamond.  

 

What do you think?  Should the Mets give Davis one more chance or would you give Duda a change to prove his worth at his natural position?  Are either the first baseman of the future?  More importantly, who won't be with the team upon the completion of the Winter Meetings?

Do The Mets Have Any Money Left?

The Mets have now committed $67 million dollars to the major league roster this winter.  That's more than double what the organization spent on free agency over the past four years (HERE).  Its good news..The Mets have overhauled two thirds of their outfield thus far, but there is still work to be done.  So it begs the question, has the Mets modest shopping spree left any money in the bank to assist in other areas.

With all the players the Mets current have under contract, the most accurate number I've seen for next season's payroll currently stands at $75.5 million dollars.  You may also recall that the expectations for next winter's payroll have changed a bit over the last few months (HERE).  So what does that mean?

Depending on which report you believe, that would mean the Mets have anywhere from $5 to $12 million dollars in cash left.  I'm going to used the $12 million dollar number for two reasons.  First and foremost, for some crazy reason I remain an optimist.  Secondly, the Mets are going to need every dime of that $12 million if they still wish to upgrade all the parts they outlined this winter.  That would bring their payroll to $87 million, which Alderson noted as recently as three weeks ago would be the bare minimum.

Then there is another $9 to $10 million dollars the Mets can reallocate.  I'm talking of course about Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy.  Its been projected that Ike will make $3.5 million and Murphy will come in closer to $5.8 million dollars next season.  If either (or both) are traded, thats money that will also be invested in new players.

So in reality (or at least the way I'm looking at it), the Mets theoretically have another $22 million they can spend, one way or another, to improve this roster.  That should be more than enough to both bring in another starting pitcher and upgrade at shortstop.  Of course, that may require Alderson to get creative via trade next week at the Winter Meetings, but that's why he gets the big bucks.  We'll see what happens, but either way the Mets shouldn't be finished just yet.

Why Alderson Should Rush To Get Granderson Deal Done

This time next week, the MLB Winter Meetings will be well underway.  This will be the last time this year that all of the team's executives will be in the same place at the same time.  Traditionally, this is the week that the MLB Hot Stove really takes off.  Trades are made, free agents are inks and the winter really starts to take shape.  This offseason has been far less traditional.

With yesterday's flurry of activity, more teams have already entered the market than haven't.  The Mets are no exception, having acquired the services of Chris Young last month.  Now, with talks picking up with Curtis Granderson, Alderson may push to have a deal in place prior to the end of the week.

When Alderson arrives in Orlando for the Winter Meetings, he needs to know what he's there to accomplish.  Will he be looking for one outfielder, or two?  A shortstop?  Maybe a veteran pitcher?  The point is, Granderson fills one of those needs.  Doing so not only eliminates that need from Alderson's list, but also provided a better idea as to what resources, financial and otherwise, remain at his disposal.

The Mets will need to make additional moves in order to round out the roster before spring training.  While its unlikely that all of that takes place next week in Orlando, it is without a doubt the best chance to put things together.  If trades aren't completed, discussions may put the framework in place for other deals to be completed later on.  If deals aren't made, at least teams can meet with prospective free agents and get things moving.

Alderson is at the helm of a sinking ship.  The Mets promised action this winter, and Chris Young isn't nearly enough to stem the tide of bad baseball over reason years.  In reality, neither will Curtis Granderson.  However, getting this done now will go a long way to ensuring the Mets have a productive winter meeting, thus giving Alderson the best possible opportunity to whip the roster into shape.

Granderson Talks Intensify

Per ESPN's Adam Rubin, talks between the New York Mets and Curtis Granderson intensified Tuesday night.  This following a face-to-face meeting between the two sides on Sunday which was Granderson called more of a Q&A than anything else.

Granderson would likely fill in in left field for the Mets.  He possessed forty home run potential with the Yankees, but would likely be more of a thirty home run guy playing most of his games at Citi Field, where its believed his power would translate nicely.  If he is brought in the Mets would have three "natural center fielders" in their opening day outfield, to include Chris Young and Juan Largares.

Per Rubin, the Met hope to land the slugger on a three year deal, but may be forced to include a guaranteed fourth. This sounds about right, amidst rumors that 37 year old Carlos Beltran has a three year offer on the table.

Things have progressed quickly, as the Mets look to fill another hole in their outfield prior to the MLB Winter Meetings next week.  Doing so will allow Sandy Alderson to know what trade he theoretically has to make while in Orlando.

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@Mets & Granderson see eye-to-eye on a 3-yr deal, but he's still looking to find a team willing to give to go to four.
— Matthew Cerrone (@matthewcerrone) December 4, 2013

The above tweet from Matt Cerrone seems to indicate things are indeed progressing. Granderson on only a three year deal would be quite a steal, in my opinion. It would limit the risk over the long term and allow the Mets to reinvest in a younger player when that time comes. Its still far from a done deal, as there are rumblings that the Red Sox could enter the market for Granderson, at which point a fourth year would be inevitable.

Wright Thinks The Offseason Will Pick Up At The Winter Meetings

David Wright's "The Mets Are Mediocre At Best" media tour continued this afternoon when he appeared ESPN NY 98.7 Radio.  In what amounted to an identical interview to the one he had on WFAN 660 yesterday, Wright had the following to say:

- Sandy has some tricks up his sleeve for the Winter Meetings, when Wright believes the plan will start taking shape.
- Everyone knew the free agents prices would be high.
- Wright expects the team to be much better going into next season, so fans should "have faith".

The organization has been sucking the faith out of its fans for what amounts to the better part of a decade now.  Even those of us who still have some, don't have much.  With that said, the Mets have been more than vocal about their sticker shock this winter.  Perhaps, Wright should have let the front office in on the notion that prices would be sky high.

Finally, for what its worth, the MLB Winter Meetings will take place from December 9th thru the 12th in Orlando, FL.  This is usually when the offseason ramps up, however this winter has seen a slew of early action.  Perhaps Alderson does have a plan of actions, but I think its a better chance Wright is just hoping against hope that he wasn't swindled by the front office's presentation last winter when he reupped.

Wright remains a consummate professional, so it should come as no surprise that he said all the right things in these interviews.  However, I feel his pleas are falling on deaf ears with both the front office and the fans.