January 4, 2014

Ike Davis To Baltimore Talks Stall..Again

After days of rumors and speculation, it appears that talks that could have sent Ike Davis to the Baltimore Orioles have stalled yet again.  The Baltimore Sun reported the following this morning:
The Orioles recently spoke with the New York Mets about possibly acquiring second baseman Daniel Murphy, first baseman Ike Davis and outfielder Lucas Duda, according to a source, but discussions didn’t progress very far because the Mets coveted a top pitching prospect, like Eduardo Rodriguez.
The writer, Eduardo A. Encina, makes it sound as if this may be the end of talks between the two teams for the time being. Therefore, its possible Alderson's demands for a significant pitching prospect may have proved too much for these negotiations. If Baltimore is in fact out of the Ike Davis sweepstakes, the Mets may be left with only the Milwaukee Brewers as a potential trade partner. If that's the case, the Brewers have all the leverage and Alderson may have to drop his demands or risk bringing Davis to spring training feeling unwanted and unconfident.

I maintain the notion that if and when Davis is dealt, it will be for a player who will not help the 2014 Mets, if at all.  Essentially, such a move would be little more than a salary dump.  If they come up empty the team can cut Davis this spring for just $600K, but that remains an unlikely last resort.

January 3, 2014

A Date Which Will Live in Infamy

June 12, 2009 is a date Mets fans want to forget, but will unfortunately long remember.   Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, brought in as the solution to the bullpen collapses from the year before, was on the mound.  Jeter on second. Teixeira on first.  Two outs.  Another high wire act from our new and expensive closer.  Rodriguez deals a fastball.  Alex Rodriguez swings - and it's a harmless looking pop up toward short right field.  A-Rod slams the bat to the ground. K-Rod pumps his fist in exaltation.  Luis Castillo, a three time Gold Glove winner, drifts toward the right field line . . . and he keeps drifting . . . and drifting.  And then, the unthinkable.  The ball pops out of Castillo's one handed grasp and falls agonizingly to the ground. The camera pans to home plate. Jeter has already scored the tying run. Mark Teixeira crosses the plate with the winning run.  A kick in the stomach from which the franchise yet to recover.

Before that play, the Mets were 31-27.  As a result of that play, they went 39-65 the rest of the season.  In the three and a half seasons before The Drop, the Mets were 285-239: a combined yearly average won/loss record of 88-74.  Since that date, which will live in Mets infamy, they are a combined 343-409 - exactly the opposite yearly average: 74-88.

Few teams have their fortunes so distinctly tied to such an inflection point.  Some teams struggle and maintain respectability before they go from good to bad. With these Mets, it was like a light switch.   Calamities known by the names of the participants - Bernie Madoff, Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, and yes, Luis Castillo - mark the era.

How does a team and a fan base recover from such a debacle and its aftermath?  There is only one salve for healing these wounds: winning.  When Dwight Gooden was on the mound striking out sixteen with a blazing fastball and a devastating curve, Mets fans snickered at the days gone by when Pat Zachary toed the rubber.  When Mike Piazza, in June of 2000, scorched a line drive over the left field wall to put the Mets ahead 11-8 after falling behind to the Braves, no one minded that Junior Ortiz was once the everyday catcher.  When Tom Seaver ended a game against the Padres in April of 1970 by striking out the last ten batters (19 overall), who remembered that just five years earlier, the 1965 Mets pitching staff included a 44 year old Warren Spahn (4-12) and a 20 year old Tug McGraw (2-7)?  That team lost 112 games.

As we endure the freezing cold of another winter, we have the time to reflect on such things. There may come a time in the not too distant future when Harvey and Wheeler and Syndergaard are mowing down the opposition and Mets fans can look back on The Drop as another comical episode in Mets history.  Until then, we will be haunted by the play and still painfully mystified by Castillo's miscue. We will also morosely recall that, in addition to dropping an easy pop up, when he picked up the ball - he threw to the wrong base.

Six Weeks Until The Mets Report For Spring Training!

With the Owners Meetings, the Winter Meetings and now even the holidays behind us, many have already set their sights towards spring training.  Well, when you wake up tomorrow morning it will be just six weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie, FL.

Photo Courtesy of Michael Baron
Lets Go Mets!

Phillies Cash In With TV Deal

It stands to reason the Philadelphia Phillies won't be racing any economic issues for the foreseeable future, as its been reported that the team has inked a 25 year deal worth more than $2.5 BILLION dollars.  Yikes...

The only reason its so demoralizing is that the Mets went an alternate route and established their own cable network.  As a result, they're reportedly on the hook for $450 million of the $750 million in total debt owned by SNY.  Life just isn't fair... 

The debt owed by the team with regards to both SNY and Citi Field, combined with the bond payments its responsible to make puts the overall debt of the franchise at approaching $900 million overall as of early 2013.  It is believed the be the major contributing factor for the limited payroll spending in recent years.  So, while the Mets continue to dig themselves out of the financial hole they've created, their rivals down the turnpike are now rolling in money.  Perfect.

Wheeler Will Be Walking A Fine Line In 2014

Over at FanGraphs this morning, Jeff Zimmerman posted an excellent piece about Zack Wheeler and the challenges that lie ahead for the young pitcher.  In it, he outlines two areas which may send Wheeler's career in one direction or the other.  Those areas were his walk rate and his risk of injury.

Zimmerman mentions that Wheeler was one of only four qualified starting pitchers to post a walk rate above 4.0/9IP (it was 4.1/9IP to be exact).  I immediately thought to myself that Wheeler had a very good stretch of baseball during July and August.  Surely it was the early nerves and tiring down the stretch that elevated that figure.  Right?

To some extent that's correct.  However, when I crunched the numbers I found that in July and August last season, a stretch during which Wheeler went 6-2 and threw 70 IP over the course of 11 starts, his walk ratio was still just shy of 3.1/9IP.  That's still probably too high over the long run.  Furthermore, there is history behind this concern as Zack pitched to a similar rate of 4.0/9IP throughout his minor league career.

To me the more immediate concern is actually his injury risk.  It is long documented (Here, Here and Here) that his delivery is an issue.  Not only does it impact his ability to throw strikes, but many insist it puts more strain on his arm.  As Zimmerman points out, Wheeler's 2013 season was cut short by shoulder stiffness after throwing just 9 more innings than he did in 2012.  That stiffness was preceded by a loss of velocity and command, more red flags.

The other thing to note is that Wheeler's immediate injury concerns lie in his shoulder, not his elbow.  Historically, shoulder injuries have a much more significant impact on a pitcher's career (think Johan Santana).  Walks or not, Wheeler is slotted in as a major part of the Mets future rotation.  As we await the eventual return of Matt Harvey, who's smooth simple mechanics still resulted in Tommy John surgery, is it increasingly likely that another cataclysmic arm injury is on the horizon for one of the team's fresh faces?

I try not to dwell on injuries when it comes to pitchers because they are almost a given at some point in their careers, but Wheeler does appear more prone than others.  Also noted by Zimmerman, Wheeler told ESPN that he plans to work on repeating his delivery in 2014.  That may very well improve his command, but with his mechanics being what they are..he may only be delaying the inevitable.

Like what you've read?  Follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83.

Zack Wheeler Is A Redneck

Zack Wheeler, a young pitcher with a lot of promise for a great future here in Queens, is a redneck. An absolute hick. This shouldn't come as a complete surprise, as he hails from Smyrna, Georgia, but it makes you wonder how much he likes coping with New York City. Before you, I will lay the evidence.

Yes, that is basically a monster truck. No way that thing gets more than 9 MPG. Uncivilized bumpkin.

And I bet all you want to do is shoot them, don't you big guy? Those deer have mothers. Fathers. What did they ever do to you?!
Taking in a little wrasslin', Zack? Jeez, I hope you didn't have too many Natty Ices in the parking lot beforehand, hillbilly.
They sell fish at the supermarket, stump jumper.
Actual Eric Church lyrics: "Man I love how Redman tastes, and damn I love my Nascar race."

My advice, folks: if you see Wheeler at the stadium, try not to approach him to quickly. Speak to him slowly, using small words. Ask him if he likes the big buildings, and if he's gotten to ride in a taxi yet. Humor this redneck, because we need him to win some games this year.

Citi Field Will Have A New Neighbor

The renovation of Willets Point will look to rejuvenate the area surrounding Citi Field.  Gone are the car lots and chop shops which proved to be eye sores for baseball patrons.  while the renovations are supposed to be all encompassing, the announced plans for the area were limited to a mall.  That has now changed.
Both ESPN and Newsday are reporting that construction will begin this June on a new 25-story hotel and convention center to go in directly across the street from the ball park.  Newsday get a bit more specific in stating that the site will house 292 five-star hotel rooms and 236 apartments above the roughly 106,000-square-foot convention center. The project will also include about 97,000 square feet of retail space, a restaurant and parking.

Its great that other investors are getting in on the action, as it would be horrible to see the project stall at any point.  With that said, this is a loooong project in general.  It was previously reported that retail spaces were originally targeted for completion in 2018, while other residential portions of the project could take as long as a decade.  Either way, its great for the area and the team that patrons will be able to enjoy the area when the come to a ballgame and just the park itself.