Wheeler Will Be Walking A Fine Line In 2014

Over at FanGraphs this morning, Jeff Zimmerman posted an excellent piece about Zack Wheeler and the challenges that lie ahead for the young pitcher.  In it, he outlines two areas which may send Wheeler's career in one direction or the other.  Those areas were his walk rate and his risk of injury.

Zimmerman mentions that Wheeler was one of only four qualified starting pitchers to post a walk rate above 4.0/9IP (it was 4.1/9IP to be exact).  I immediately thought to myself that Wheeler had a very good stretch of baseball during July and August.  Surely it was the early nerves and tiring down the stretch that elevated that figure.  Right?

To some extent that's correct.  However, when I crunched the numbers I found that in July and August last season, a stretch during which Wheeler went 6-2 and threw 70 IP over the course of 11 starts, his walk ratio was still just shy of 3.1/9IP.  That's still probably too high over the long run.  Furthermore, there is history behind this concern as Zack pitched to a similar rate of 4.0/9IP throughout his minor league career.

To me the more immediate concern is actually his injury risk.  It is long documented (Here, Here and Here) that his delivery is an issue.  Not only does it impact his ability to throw strikes, but many insist it puts more strain on his arm.  As Zimmerman points out, Wheeler's 2013 season was cut short by shoulder stiffness after throwing just 9 more innings than he did in 2012.  That stiffness was preceded by a loss of velocity and command, more red flags.

The other thing to note is that Wheeler's immediate injury concerns lie in his shoulder, not his elbow.  Historically, shoulder injuries have a much more significant impact on a pitcher's career (think Johan Santana).  Walks or not, Wheeler is slotted in as a major part of the Mets future rotation.  As we await the eventual return of Matt Harvey, who's smooth simple mechanics still resulted in Tommy John surgery, is it increasingly likely that another cataclysmic arm injury is on the horizon for one of the team's fresh faces?

I try not to dwell on injuries when it comes to pitchers because they are almost a given at some point in their careers, but Wheeler does appear more prone than others.  Also noted by Zimmerman, Wheeler told ESPN that he plans to work on repeating his delivery in 2014.  That may very well improve his command, but with his mechanics being what they are..he may only be delaying the inevitable.

Like what you've read?  Follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83.

Fan Graphs: Mets Top Prospect List Released

This morning the guys over at Fan Graphs released their 2014 Top Ten Prospects:  New York Mets.  The list was as follows:

1) Noah Syndergaard (SP)
2) Travis d'Arnaud (C)
3) Dominic Smith (1B)
4) Amed Rosario (SS)
5) Rafael Montero (SP)
6) Kevin Plawecki (C)
7) Jake DeGrom (SP)
8) Steve Marz (SP)
9) Gavin Cecchini (SS)
10) Wilmer Flores (3B)

Honorable Mention:
11) Dilson Herrera (2B)
12) Michael Fulmer (SP)
13) Domingo Tapia (RP)
14) Brandon Nimmo (OF)
15) Vic Black (RP)

I always feel its important to remind people that these lists are based on projections of future development and not how "good" or "bad" a player is right now.

The first two on the list are no-brainers, each coming by way of the RA Dickey trade, as it stands to reason that both Syndergaard and d'Arnaud will have a significant impact on the 2014 campaign for the Mets.  Three others mentioned in the article who could play a part for the big league club this season are Rafael Montero and Jake DeGrom who figures to battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, and also Vic Black who could be the closer out of camp if Bobby Parnell isn't ready to go.

Was far as the youngsters go, this is Dominic Smith's first time on any prospect list, having been drafted last June, he excelled in his short tour of duty in the minors. Amed Rosario is likely the name most Mets fans don't know.  He's young and still years away from Citi Field, but stands to be the Mets best infield prospect since Jose Reyes.

The most alarming thing I see on the list is that Brandon Nimmo checks in all the way down at 14.  The Mets used their first round pick to draft Nimmo, who hadn't even played high school ball and had already suffered a pretty significant knee injury.  It was a risky pick at the time, and one that may not work out if he continues to struggle.  That said, its still very early for he and most of the other names you see above. 

Whats important is that the Mets do have guys in their system now who will eventually make an impact at the big league level.  That alone is an improvement over years past, and will prove important to Sandy Alderson's pursuit of sustainable success on a budget.