Bartolo Colon Signing Isn't A Bust

Colon finished 6th in AL Cy Young voting in 2013.

As of today, the Mets have agreed to a 2 year, $20 million dollar deal with RHP starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (18-6 2.65), pending a physical.

Mets fans might be confused as to why a rebuilding team might make a "let's win now" move such as this. Why bring on a 40 year-old to lead such a young rotation with other, perhaps more durable options on the table?

Of the notable FA starters New York may have inked this offseason, the following remained unsigned as of December 11th: Bronson Arroyo, AJ Burnett, Chris Capuano, Matt Garza, Aaron Harang, Ubaldo Jimenez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Pelfrey, Ervin Santana, and Johan Santana.

Of those, Arroyo, Jimenez, and Ervin Santana were the only realistic options for Sandy Alderson to go after. However, Jimenez and Santana are entering their age 30 and 31 seasons, respectively, so neither would have accepted any offer less than 4-5 years at this stage in their careers.

Alderson is unwilling to give a multiyear contract to any starter this year leaving him with only, outside of Bartolo Colon, former Red Bronson Arroyo.

Over the past two seasons, Arroyo has gone 26-22, posting a 3.76 ERA in 404 innings. Colon, though four years older, has 28-15 record to a finer 2.99 ERA, though in 342.2 innings pitched.

Alleged PED's or no, Colon is clearly the better pitcher of late, and his age has only minimally affected his innings.

Money-wise, Arroyo is allegedly seeking a deal worth 3 years for $36 million, making him slightly more expensive, and the third year is what most likely killed any talks between his representation and the Mets front office.

Both guys are solid teammates and carry positive clubhouse influence, and either will have successfully ate the injured Matt Harvey's missing innings in 2014.

Colon is a proven veteran who will undoubtedly assist in the development of the Mets' young arms, especially with the experience of more collected hardware than Bronson Arroyo has to brag about.

Sandy Alderson got a solid long-timer for a cheap price, on top of Colon's stellar season last year, I'm not sure what else Mets fans could have wanted.

Personally, I'm thrilled.

(Tweet me @brykrunyon51)

Mets Push To Sign Arroyo, Will Slow Play Drew

A couple of quick hot stove updates for you.  In the hours since formally announcing the signing of Curtis Granderson, the Mets have apparently made a push to sign Bronson Arroyo, but are not without company on that mission.

Latest Arroyo steam: Mets and Reds making strong pushes. No new #MNTwins steam. No offer made by Twins, I hear. Not sure on other two.
— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) December 10, 2013

This goes directly against Alderson's comment's yesterday that the team would like to avoid anything more than a one year deal on a starting pitcher. It was rumored early on that Arroyo wanted a three year deal. Unless his market has completely crashed (there is no reason to think it has), he will almost certainly command at least two guaranteed years. He would instantly sure up the back end of the Mets rotation and would potentially make Rafael Montero available for trade.

----------------------------------------------------------

In other news, Dave Lennon of Newsday has reported that the Mets do have interested in free agent shortstop Stephen Drew, but only at the appropriate price.   He also states that the Mets are very hesitant to go past two years on Drew, whose possible landing spots include the Red Sox, Twins and in fact, the Mets per an update from MetsBlog's Matt Cerrone.

A market for Drew has yet to develop, but he is the lone big back remaining on the free agent market when it comes to shortstop.  Don't expect much from the Mets to this end, especially if they are successful with Arroyo.

Mets Continue To Be Reactive In Free Agency

For all the talk we hear about the Mets looking forward and being proactive towards building a better, sustainable baseball team, they certainly are reactive when it comes to the free agent market.  Its never been much of a secret that the Mets would be operating on a fixed budget of sorts this winter, so why not set the market, rather than react to it.

Free agent prices sent skyward starting with San Francisco's extension of Hunter Pence to the tune of 5 year/$90 million dollars.  That deal set the market price on the higher end of the outfield market.  Marlon Bryd's deal, which could be as much at 3 years/$24 million dollars, set the market price on the lower end.  Each deal greatly impacted what the Mets could accomplish this winter.

The same can be said for the pitching market, which saw Latroy Hawkins exit for a mere $2.5 million guarantee from the Rockies.  More recently, it was Phil Hughes' 3 year/$24 million dollar deal in Minnesota that may eventually impact the Mets pursuit of Bronson Arroyo.  These guys aren't getting cheaper, and the Mets are getting increasingly likely to be left out in the cold.

The notion here isn't to argue whether or not free agents are worth the contracts they're getting.  In many cases they are not, but it remains apparent that team's always overpay for quality talent. That is especially true when teams are looking to rebuild a franchise on questionable financial grounds in a stadium that players are less than thrilled to play in.  The Mets have a variety of hurdles they must clear when they enter the market.

And yes, I realize its not as simple as saying the Mets need to act first.  Players wait out the market in an effort to see if their value will increase.  They may have desires of playing for a contender and see the Mets as their backup plan.  However, the Mets need to make things happen.  They cannot afford to "see whats left" later on in the winter, as Sandy Alderson has now alluded to.

The Mets may have had genuine interest in being active this winter, but by not getting out in front of the market they have allowed things to spiral out of control.  Misreading the market several years ago cost Sandy Alderson a chance to resign Jose Reyes.  This winter it may cost Alderson the offseason renovation the Mets have been promising their fans for years.

The Mets "Pursuit" Of Bronson Arroyo

As you  may have noticed, we here at Effing Mets took the holiday weekend off, but here is a quick recap of the Bronson Arroyo soap opera...

-----------------------------------------------------------------

11/30/13 - The Mets plan to meet with Bronson Arroyo.  ESPN NY reports that the Mets have reached out to Arroyo's agent in an effort to set up a meeting at the free agent pitcher's home.

11/30/13 - The Mets have no plans to meet with Bronson Arroyo.  Dave Lennon of Newsday reports that the Mets have no intention of meeting with Arroyo.

12/2/13 - The Mets might meet with Bronson Arroyo.  ESPN NY reports that the Mets aren't.. and I quote: "super high" on the veteran pitcher. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

What does all that mean?  My guess is the Mets would love to acquire Arroyo's services, but can't fathom giving a 37 year old pitcher with nearly 2,300 innings on his arm a multi-year deal that would likely be in excess of $30 million dollars.

Arroyo is the definition of the starting pitcher the Mets entered the winter in search of.  He provides a guaranteed 200 innings every year, would provide a veteran presence to mold the team's young starters and oddly enough, still throws a pretty good game.  That said, the Mets remain more interested in their wallet than their baseball roster.

I expect Arroyo rumors until he eventually signs somewhere.  I don't expect that somewhere to be Queens.  Arroyo is admittedly a risk, because his arm won't last forever.  Phil Hughes weekend deal worth 3/$24MM likely increased Arroyo's value and likely priced the Mets out...again.

MLB Trade Rumors Makes Mets Predictions

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors released his predictions last night for where he feels the top 50 free agents will call home next season.  Of the group, Dierkes believes the Mets will bring in four (amazing, right?) to include: Curtis Granderson, Stephen Drew, Bronson Aroyo and Roy Halladay.  I don't know what you think of that crop, but here are my feelings...

Curtis Granderson - 3 years/$45MM
I hadn't really given Granderson much consideration going into this offseason for some reason.  The soon to be 33 year old ranked 13th on the MLB Trade Rumors list, so I'm not sure how he made it under my radar.  Granderson missed much of last year due to separate fracture injuries, which I don't tend to hold against players (impact injuries are bad luck, strains/sprains can theoretically be avoided).  A three year deal could be an attractive commitment length to Alderson & Co., but fans will need to temper there expectations.  Making the transition from friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium to the expansive outfield of Citi Field will do a number on Granderson's forty home run potential, but he still possesses what would easily be the best outfield bat on the team.  Do it: Yes.

Stephen Drew - 4 years/$40+MM
Drew finds his way to #14 on the MLB Trade Rumors list, and I'm not really sure why.  I don't understand why so many of my Mets counterparts are so enamored with a player who has topped 120 games played in only one season since 2010.  At best hes likely a .250 hitter with 15 home run potential, who despite being a significant upgrade offensively at shortstop would be without question the most risky contract Alderson & Co. have dealt out in his tenure in my opinion.  I'd much rather see the Mets steer towards Jhonny Peralta who hits for a stronger average, with comparable power potential and better health.  He also stands to be the cheaper of the two.  Do it: No.

Bronson Arroyo - 2 years/$24MM
Arroyo is the definition of what the Mets are looking for this offseason.  A veteran innings eater with upside.  Arroyo, who lands at 23rd on the list, has pitched no fewer than 199 innings in every season since 2004.  He has also posted double digit wins in all but two of those seasons.  He has pitched to a sub 3.80 ERA the past two years and could benefit transitioning from the hitter-friendly All American Ball Park in Cincinnati to Citi Field.  While agree with those who say that a guaranteed deal worth $20+MM is a lot to hand a 38 year old pitcher with a lot of miles on his arm, if Arroyo will agree to a only a two year deal its a no brainer in my opinion.  Do it: Yes.

Roy Halladay - 1 Year/$??MM
Doc squeezed onto the list at number 49, and may be there more so due to his past than his current potential.  Halladay is a shell of the pitcher who had 16 or more wins from 2006 to 2011.  He started only 13 games in 2013 in a failed attempt to pitcher through injury.  I guess what really makes the difference in this instance is how much is he going to cost.  I find it hard to believe that a pitcher of his stature would accept a minor league deal (regardless of the cost).  The only thing the Mets have a lot of is starting pitching.  Halladay could arrive at spring training and be beat out by any one of several young pitchers for what I expect would be the fifth and final spot in the rotation.  I agree that the Mets will bring in at least one low risk, high reward types this winter, but I'm not sure Halladay fits that mold.  Do it: No.

There predictions account for what would be no less than $37MM in new payroll this winter, leaving an estimated opening day payroll of nearly $90MM.  That's about where I've said the team would top out.  Again, I'd prefer to see the organization be more thrifty at shortstop so that that money can be applied to the outfield or first base.  Further more, if the Mets are active in the trade market, the money represented here might not be available. 

This wouldn't be a bat crop of free agents, despite the fact I would steer away from some of them.  They would produce a Mets team with significantly more potential in 2014.  A playoff team...I'm not sure.  At a minimum the Mets would need at least another corner outfielder and probably more production from first base.  Perhaps that's what the trade market is for.  Only time will tell.  What do you think of these guys?  Are they a recipe for success, or would the Mets simply be asking for trouble?

Should The Mets Sign Tim Lincecum?

The really is going to be a crazy offseason, regardless of what the Mets do or don't get accomplished.  There is now news out of San Francisco that Giants pitcher, Tim Lincecum, has decided he will test the free agent market in hopes of a short term deal that will allow him to rebuild his overall value.  This is interesting...

At only 29 years old, Lincecum is well decorated.  He has a pair of Cy Young Awards, as well as three years where he has won at least fifteen games.  The problem is he is now three years removed from those glorious times.  The other knock on Lincecum is his mechanics, which you are probably familiar with.  They are awkward..and that means they are not consistent and deserve at least partial blame for back to back ten win seasons.

The issue becomes that Lincecum is likely better than his numbers the last few years would indicate.  Likely the reasoning behind seeking a short term deal, but at what price?

The Mets' front office has stated that they will seek starting pitching this winter from outside the organization.  Lincecum should at a minimum land on the teams radar for two reasons.  First and foremost, he is seeking a short term deal.  Secondly, the Mets have a short term need.  However, there are certainly detractors.

The Mets are rumored to covet a veteran starting pitching to not only eat innings, but also serve a mentor of sorts.  Tim Lincecum probably doesn't satisfy either of those criteria.  Furthermore, Lincecum, whether he is looking to rebuild his value or not, will not come cheap.  Coming off of a 2013 season that saw him make $22 million dollars, even a modest pay cut sees Lincecum make upwards of $15 million dollars next season.  I'm not sure that leaves him in the Mets price range and I'm not sure they should spend $15 million on a player who has not only struggled, but who has been known to have character issues.

If the Mets were operating with a blank check book, I think I would be all in on Lincecum on a short term deal.  In a vacuum, a short term deal for a pitcher of his abilities is a no-brainer.  However they aren't operating in said vacuum and still don't have that aforementioned blank check.  While I acknowledge that there is a need within the starting rotation, this team's major void has been offense for years now.  I'd rather see the money invested in the every day line up.

Lincecum is a premiere talent, but certainly a risky one.  For an organization that just dropped $30 million on a former ace who didn't throw a pitch last year, I'm skeptical they would bring in another former ace who may have more financial risk than on-field upside.  Is it better to dish out two years/$30 million to Tim Lincecum or 2 years/$20 million to a Bronson Arroyo type?  If the price is right I say go for it, but do not sacrifice the offense yet again because that should be the Mets number one priority this winter.

How Would You Rank The Mets Free Agency Needs?

A few days ago, Jason Lempert, of Bleacher Report took the time to rank what he thought were the Mets most pressing needs via free agency.  He ranked them as follows:

1) Starting Pitching
2) Catching
3) Shortstop
4) Outfielder
5) Relief Pitcher

Umm..alright, I suppose these would be the five areas that the Mets need to address this winter, but that isn't even remotely close to how I would rank them.  Here is what I'm thinking:

1) Outfielder
2) Starting Pitcher
3) Shortstop
4) Relief Pitcher
5) Catcher

Even with the injury to Matt Harvey, the Mets still have a plethora of young starting pitchers.  Does that mean that the likes of Jenrry Mejia, Jacob deGrom and Rafael Montero should be depended upon next year? No.  But the Mets most pressing need with unquestionably offense.

Its for that reason that I would select outfield as the first area that needs to be addressed.  If you looking for a guy who is good for a 25HR/100RBI season, certainly there are more to be had in the corners of the outfield.  Whether or not the Mets decide to spend what it takes to bring one of those guys in is another story, but the fastest way to add pop to the line up is going to be via an outfielder.

Second, I would agree that starting pitching is a definite area of concern.  The Mets and their young pitchers would greatly benefit from the acquisition of a veteran teaching type.  Lempert brings up Bronson Arroyo, whose name has come up frequently so far this winter.  I'm not 100% sure Arroyo is the best answer, but I think he's the right type of player.

Third is a supposed replacement for Ruben Tejada and/or Omar Quintanilla.  I think this spot needs to be addressed, but more so because there are going to be legitimate upgrades available.  Ruben Tejada at his best (which may already be behind him) doesn't provide the lineup presence someone like Jhonny Peralta does.  This is an area the Mets should definitely look into if they have the funds after addressing the first two areas.

Fourth is the bullpen.  I think this lands an nearly every team's list this winter.  Bullpens are always a crap shoot for lack of a better term.  The Mets' pen ended the year on a pretty good note.  Lempert suggests that Parnell's questionable health is the reason for his high ranking, but I anticipate the Mets have other in house options that can temporarily fill this roll, just as LaTroy Hawkins did in 2013.

Finally, a veteran catcher.  I think this a fair assessment.  The Mets don't need Travis d'Arnaud as their lone major league caliber backstop, nor can they count on his health.  The reason I don't stress this area is that I think backup catchers are almost a dime a dozen (sounds crazy to say that having endured years of Josh Thole).  The Mets will find someone, whether it be Henry Blanco or the recently traded John Buck to fill this role.

-------------------------------------------------------------

So that's what I think... And more importantly why I think it.  How would you rank them?  Do you agree with Lempert's assessment of things or am I more in line?  Maybe you fall somewhere in the middle.  Either way, let us know in the comments section below!

What Could Ninety Million Dollars Buy The Mets In 2014?

What would you need if you were going to rebuild the New York Mets?  A magic lamp, a genie and three wishes, you say?  All jokes aside, you would need money and young talent.  Truth be told, as the offseason draws near, Sandy Alderson will have both to work with.

In case you've forgotten, here are the major contracts which stand to come off the books this winter:
- Johan Santana ($25.5 million)
- Jason Bay ($18 million)
- Frank Francisco ($6.5 million)

There will be others, but those three alone represent $50 million in team payroll which, with the exception of whatever Francisco gives you in the next three weeks, have contributed absolutely nothing to the cause this season.  Yes, that's right.. the Mets have essentially fielded a $50 million dollar team this season.  While their record probably reflects that, you can see how reallocating that money can improve the team..fast!

Its been hypothesized by Sandy Alderson that after raises to folks like Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell (and maybe Ike Davis), that the Mets will enter the offseason with roughly $55 million committed to the 2014 season.  So how much will they spend and more importantly, where will they spend it?

Photo Courtesy of ESPN

The most alarming hole going into the offseason will be the team's outfield.  Believe it or not, the front office should be concerned that it has to replace Marlon Byrd's production.  Enter a player such a Shin-Soo Choo, who the Mets have been linked to as recently as this week, and your talking about a player who will earn an average salary of between twelve and fifteen million dollars.  While that takes a bite out of your budget, it certainly leaves enough to address other areas.

Sandy Alderson has recently expressed an interest in adding a veteran pitcher to the fold this offseason.  How much money will that cost?  Well, Bronson Arroyo has posted two very solid seasons in a row and could command as much as ten million dollars.  I chose Arroyo because he has pitched no fewer than 199 innings every season since 2005.  He's also had an ERA under four, doesn't walk many batters and basically just seems like an Alderson type guy to me.

Photo Courtesy of ESPN

Those two deals by themselves, skyrocket your potential payroll from $55 million to as much as $80 million, and you still have another hole in the outfield to address, may look to improve at shortstop, and then there is that disaster at first base.  So where do we go from there?

In all honesty, I expect the Mets to acquire a second outfielder via trade.  I'm still not convinced that second outfielder will be named Stanton or Gonzalez, but I do anticipate another quality acquisition. The fact that it can be completed via trade (hypothetically, of course) means you have more money to spend elsewhere.  I'm not quite sure there is a guy available who you can conceivably spend more than five to seven million on at shortstop, and at the end of the day I still expect to see Ike Davis get another shot at first.

That leaves you a payroll somewhere from $85 million to $90 million after adding cheaper pieces here and there.  That would mean the Mets would field a much, much better team in the process of lowering their payroll ten million dollars from 2013.  Am I nuts to think that everything I've discussed here is completely plausible?  Does Alderson have the nerve to make such free agent decisions?

The last few years have beaten me down to the point where I'm rarely an optimist, but the team not only needs a big offseason, they have the means to make it happen.  Is a rotation of Wheeler/Niese/Arroyo/Mejia/Gee and a renovated outfield enough to see the Mets turn the corner?  Because that what $90 million and the departure of some quality prospects probably buys you in 2014.

Like what you've read?  You can follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83.