Why Mets Fans Shouldn't Be Upset About The Nelson Cruz Deal

Yesterday's news that Nelson Cruz signed with the Baltimore Orioles for just one year and only $8 million dollars was met with significant vitrol from a variety of Mets fans who choose to remain ignorant to the reality of the situation.  Chris Young signed with the Mets back on November 26th.  At that time, Nelson Cruz was rumored to be looking for a minimum of a five-year deal.  In early December it was rumored that he turned down a 5-year/$75 million dollar offer from the Seattle Mariners.  Fast forward two plus months, with teams reporting the camp that free agents have to make tough decisions.

If Mets fans think the team could have landed Nelson Cruz for the deal he signed yesterday back before the New Year, I've got a bridge to sell them. The two situations are complete different and any attempt to compare the two is nonsensical.

In reaction to the news of the Cruz deal, Mets GM Sandy Alderson told David Lennon of NewsDay the following:

"It's not just a different time frame, it's a different type of player. I'm not here to 

critique Nelson Cruz, but he's a very different player. He brings power to the table, 

no question about that. Doesn't bring the defense. Doesn't really have our approach, 

necessarily. This is not a 'gee whiz, if we-just waited' moment for us. We're happy

 with Chris Young.''

Fans will view this as a ringing endorsement for Chris Young, but they must both realize and understand that Alderson simply cannot take to the podium and say "we wish we would have signed Cruz."  That's not how you manage personnel.  Alderson was tasked with rebuilding the team's outfield this winter.  Striking early with Chris Young may have been an overpay, but it was also an attempt to get out ahead of the free agent market when things seemed to be spiraling out of control.  Two months later when teams are out of money and free agents are out of appealing options, and yesterday's deal is the result.

Finally, for those who feel the Mets should have signed Cruz despite the fact that they already have a full outfield. If you were a free agent outfielder settling for a one-year deal which you hope to use to elevate your stock for next winter, would you choose to take most of your at-bats in Camden Yards or Citi Field? That answer is easy.

Will Nelson Cruz hit more home runs than Young in 2014?  Will he hit for a higher average?  Would he have solidified the meat of the Mets' lineup better than Chris Young?  Probably.  However, none of that changes the fact that these things don't happen in a vacuum.  Expecting the team's front office to see the future without fail is unrealistic.  Chris Young is a Met.  Nelson Cruz isn't.  Fans need to realize that its very unlikely that was ever going to happen, regardless of when you think Alderson should have sealed the deal.

Stephen Drew Should Sign With the Mets

Okay, I have posted many times regarding this subject and have gone back and forth based on the rumors and sources citing Drew. Now I am completely back peddling. I apologize but this is my right.

Stephen Drew should sign the contract if it is still available and now.

Why? At $9.whatever million it is a good deal for a decent player. Is he the savior? No. Can he do a decent job? Yes and again, at that price is reasonable. Maybe Sandy could even sweeten it with a club option, pick it up or decline it based on production. I don't know if its an option but wonder if they could decline and make him a qualifying offer to recoup the pick lost from this year? Again, don't know the rules on that just wondering.

So then, what about Tejada? I was talking with @GetsThruBuckner and his thought was that Ruben could hit some against lefties. I think it is a great idea and might make him work harder and in the end Drew not playing every day might lessen his chances of his routine trip to the DL.

Your move Stephen but consider this, Nelson Cruz who does suck defensively beat you in almost every offensive category signed today for about $1.5 million less than you have been offered.

Photo Courtesy: buncee.com

Follow Me: @jwil25

The Mets And an Open Wallet...

So, going into the off season the Mets had needs for more production and defense in the outfield and shortstop as well as filling the void left by Matt Harvey after season ending Tommy John surgery. This was done by adding Chris Young, Curtis Granderson, and Bartolo Colon. Now mind you these transactions were all made with a certain degree of financial restrictions be it from the banks or whatever the Wilpons have going on in the back ground. Nothing at shortstop has come to fruition and probably won't.

The Grandy and Colon deals I think were good. Both have star power, Colon was one of these best pitchers in the league last year at age 39 and if Granderson can stay healthy should be productive while being a presence in the clubhouse and community.

Now let's pretend for a moment that money isn't an issue. Say we didn't sign Young or let the Ike/Duda saga play out the way it did all winter and sign Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales. Are the Mets now contenders?

Suspension aside, Cruz hit .266/.327/.526 along with 27 homers and 76 batted in. Young on the other hand hit .202/.280/.379 with 12HR and 40RBI. So essentially Nelson had double the production playing in the same division. Offensively there isn't much comparison based on last years results but defense there is no question Young is better. I supposed the thinking is that Young has a bounce back year at the plate and comes close to that?

Morales hit .277/.366/.449 with 23 bombs and 80 knocked in. And between Ike and Duda they hit more home runs, were close in RBI's but not close in average or slugging. Defense comes into play on this one as well especially with Ike. Once again, they are more than likely hoping for Davis to regain his form and if he does comes as a much cheaper option but remember we aren't worried about dollars in this post.

Clearly, signing both of these FA's would be more sexy than what we have now and would satisfy the fan base but it becomes a question of which is more important. Defense and the hopes for better offense or just plain offense and take our lumps here and there in the field. What say you Mets faithful(un)?

Photo Courtesy: mets360.com

Follow me: @jwil25

If It's Nelson Cruz Or Nobody, Give Me Nobody

The talk surrounding the Mets and Curtis Granderson has heated up today, with Jon Heyman of CBS indicating that the Mets have made him a three year offer. However, with other teams (richer teams) still interested in paying for Granderson's services, the deal is far from done and there is still a more than significant chance he lands elsewhere.

Image by @lets86it

If he does, another name the Mets have regularly been linked to is Nelson Cruz. Cruz, who is 33, only really broke into the league as a full time player in 2009 at 28 years old. Most notably, he will begin the upcoming year after missing all 50 of the Texas Rangers final regular season games last season to a performance enhancing drug suspension. Given that and his mild decline in the last few years during which he failed to bat over .270, I have some reservations over signing him. Yes, I realize the Mets could certainly use his power in the lineup (he was in line to hit well over 30 home runs last year before the suspension), but how he will produce in the slugging department moving forward following his PED troubles remains to be seen. Furthermore, he was a legitimate liability as an outfield defender. American League teams who look to sign him will probably envision him as a DH making spot starts in the outfield; the Mets simply cannot afford, even with the deft fielding Juan Lagares in center, to have a player whose defense is that inept roving a corner outfield position at Citi Field.

If Nelson Cruz is the last person on the dance floor, I'd rather go home to the options I already have. Cesar Puello jumps to mind, having been an offensive force in AA Binghamton for the Mets this year. Really, I just have no confidence in a power hitter off a PED suspension who can't play defense, and I hope the Mets don't miss out on Granderson and pursue Cruz for fear of signing no one.

Nelson Cruz Seeks 4yrs/$75 Million, Mets Pretend They're Still Interested

Welp..this winter has spiraled out of control rather quickly.  The Mets remain in "sticker shock" over free agent prices that Jeff Wilpon described as "scary".  They declined to overpay on Jhonny Peralta who managed an absurd 4yrs/$53 million.  Hell, the Mets wouldn't even give LaTroy Hawkins a paltry sum of $2.5 million next season.  Meanwhile, according to Jon Heyman the Mets remain interested Nelson Cruz despite the fact that he's seeking a contract of 4yrs/$75 million.

You'll have to excuse me if you expect me to believe that Sandy Alderson is going to drop nearly all of his remaining budget on an outfielder who will turn 34 next season.  An outfielder who not only lost 50 games to the Biogenisis scandal last season, but one who will also cost him a second round pick in next seasons amateur draft.

Ultimately, Cruz is shooting high as he should.  I suspect it will take something in the neighborhood of 4yrs/$64 million to retain the slugger's services.  Jhonny Peralta's deal proves there is little hesitation in the market to bring on a potential PEDs issue, but the outfield market is much deeper than that of shortstop.  As a result Cruz's offense will bring him a few more millions, but he'll fall short of the amount he's publicly seeking.

The Mets too will fall short.  They'll fall short of their fans' expectations.  They'll also fall short on their own plans to improve the roster, because I highly doubt their interest in Cruz is genuine.  Its not in line with everything they've said this winter, and this will be the most recent market they're priced out of.

Mets Offseason Is Slipping Away

It seems a bit alarmist to say before the MLB Winter Meetings have even started, but the New York Mets' offseason of change is beginning to look like a bit of a flop.  With yesterday's news that shortstop Jhonny Peralta has signed in St. Louis, its becoming increasingly more difficult to see how Sandy Alderson is going to accomplish his goals this season.

Peralta represented the most logical choice, at the position Sandy Alderson himself said was his number one priority this winter.  By way of a four year deal worth $53 million dollars Peralta is now off the board.  As a result, Stephen Drew remains the only significant free agent shortstop remaining.  He however is by all accounts well out of the Mets price range.

So what happens now?

I suppose conventional wisdom might say that the inability to retain the services of a formidable shortstop leaves more money for other places.  The problem remains the organizations apparent unwillingness to "overpay".  The Mets have been linked to both Curtis Granderson and Nelson Cruz, but can you see Sandy Alderson cut deal worth more than $60 million dollars for either?  I'm not so sure I do...

Too old?  Too expensive? Too long?  We've heard all the excuses and we're getting mighty sick of them.  While is certainly too early to call this offseason a bust, the writing is on the wall that it will fall far short of even the most modest fan's expectations.  The Mets promised a roster renovation this winter, but it appears we might be in for more of the same.

Should the Mets Give Jhonny Peralta A Four Year Deal?

Mets fan's needn't look any farther than yesterday's acquisition of Chris Young to know that the market for free agents is up this winter.  If you do take the time to look farther, you would see that Hunter Pence, Marlon Byrd and even Carlos Ruiz have all earned contracts higher than expected.  So that, paired with rumors that Jhonny Peralta was seeking a five year deal worth $75 million lead me to tweet the following yesterday:

So, should the Mets give Peralta 4/$52M? Because that's what I think it's gonna take?
— Rob Patterson (@RobPatterson83) November 22, 2013

My thinking was that Peralta was shooting high, which he should if he's going to maximize his value.  The baseball community unanimously kicked back at the notion of 5/$75M, but with prices being what they are I just shaved a year and a few million a year off his proposal.  Four years for a total of $52 million is where I landed.  A whopping $13 million per year.

Later yesterday evening, my line of thinking..which is often criticized, was vindicated for a change:

That's three GMs today that claim when they checked in Peralta he had $13MX4 in hand
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) November 23, 2013

Occasionally its nice to be right, although I'm not sure this is one of those times. The Mets went into this winter with the pipe dream that Peralta could be had on just a two year deal.  Most experts predicted three, but now its clear that it will be four years.  So that begs the question: Should the Mets offer a four year contract to an already 31 year old shortstop coming off of a PEDs suspension?

Unfortunately its not just a matter of what happens with Peralta, because the team has other holes to fill.  With that said, I would have to advise that if the Mets are unable to land an impact bat for right field (whether it be Nelson Cruz or Curtis Granderson), they should make the move for Peralta.  Despite the fact that Peralta does not have the level of power the Mets covet, he is a significant offensive improvement at shortstop.

Looking into the future, four years would bring him through his 36th birthday.  That's pretty old for a shortstop, but there has already been talk of him shifting to second base or even the outfield.  Does that type of flexibility make him a more viable option in the long term?

Again, I only make this deal if Sandy believes he won't be able to sign an impact bat.  I would much rather add thirty home run potential in left if given the opportunity.  However, if they're going to be priced out of that group (which I think is very possible), fill the other glaring hole on the diamond.  Don't let rising prices be an excuse for returning a mediocre lineup.  Four years and at least $52 million is certainly an overpay, but overpay we must if the Mets are ever going to return to relevance.

Mets In The Mix For Nelson Cruz

The #Mets, after reaching agreement with OF Chris Young, remain in the mix for another right-handed hitting outfielder, Nelson Cruz.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 22, 2013

This was Ken Rosenthal's contribution to my morning.  Its good news, I suppose.  I certainly wouldn't want Chris Young to be the biggest addition to the outfield this winter.  That said, the notion of Nelson Cruz isn't quite what I was looking for when the offseason began.

Cruz ends up on the Mets radar in all likelihood because he will be a cheaper power hitter than Curtis Granderson.  His PEDs suspension last season aside, he has had some difficulty staying on the field over the length of his career, averaging out 120 games per season from 2009 to 2011.  He is however an upgrade in right field over what Marlon Byrd gave us last year.  If he's able to stay on the field, it would be safe to say that Cruz give you .260/30/90 potential, and immediately slots in behind David Wright in the lineup. 

I am curious about cost.  Cruz did receive a qualifying offer from the Texas Rangers, meaning the Mets would forfeit their second round pick next summer if they sign him.  This also means that he'll be looking for a deal with an annual value of between $12MM and $15MM.  It was reported earlier this winter that Cruz sought a five year deal worth more than $80MM, which was unanimously downplayed by insiders throughout the game.

The Mets need to make an impact addition in right field.  Cruz would fill that need.  Despite the fact that I would probably prefer Granderson, beggars can't be choosers.  I just want to see the Mets make responsible moves.  At the right number, Cruz would be just that.

Mets Are On The Board..Sign Chris Young

Chris Young agrees to mets deal pending physical. OF has some pop, good defender
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 22, 2013

Its not the type of acquisition that will put many minds to rest, but the Mets have made their first move of the winter, signing 30 year old outfielder Chris Young. The deal is for one year, pending physical. Financial terms of the deal have not been released.

Young spent 2013 with the Oakland A's, where he made $8.5 million. Young appeared in just 107 games during which he posted a .200 BA with 12 home runs and 40 RBIs. Young has had a trip to the disabled list in each of the past two seasons, losing 18 days to a strained left quad in 2013 and 20 days in 2012 to a shoulder injury. Young could be the first part of platoon package, as his career numbers are much better again left handed pitching (.262 vs .225).

 Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports promptly reported following this signing that the Mets remain interested in power hitting outfielder, Nelson Cruz, despite this signing. So we'll have to wait and see where we go from here.

I am slightly disappointed that Chris Young (the pitcher) is no longer with the organization.  That whole Bobby Jones vs. Bobby Jones era was kinda fun.  With that said, I hope the acquisition of Young isn't the only deal made for the 2014 outfield.  Young is not an everyday player and with the one year deal would only be another stopgap.  We'll have to see what else gets accomplished this winter before we can accurately assess this one.

ICYMI: Mets Can't Afford Anyone

I don't mean to start your Monday morning off with bad news, but its becoming more and more likely that the Mets can't afford free agents this winter.  Over the weekend, Mike Puma of the New York Post reported that the Mets fear they will be priced out of mid-market free agents such as Curtis Granderson and Nelson Cruz.

Have no fear though, its because Marlon Byrd's shiny new contract with the Phillies worth as much as 3yr/$24MM, has sent the market soaring, not because the Wilpon's have no money.  For a third consecutive offseason, the Mets front office doesn't want to pay market price for anything resembling a competent major leaguer.  Remember..the free agent prices are "scarey", said Jeff Wilpon last week.

Despite Sandy Alderson reassuring fans that the organization plans to spend more on the free agent market than it did last winter (a whopping $5MM), I remain increasingly skeptical.  Look, I can sympathize with the Mets not wanting to blow half the budget on one player, but something has to give here.  Fans want to see players they can get excited about, not another cheap crop of low risk/high reward has beens.

The Mets like to say they don't want to commit too much to a player with obvious flaws.  That's a swell way of thinking until you realized that the players who aren't flawed are the ones who will make in excess of $100MM this winter.  There are no perfect players when your trolling the same shallow end of the free agent pool where Sandy has set anchor in previous offseasons.  The Mets aren't entrenched there because they want to be, they are being priced out of the market because they can't afford them.  Its that easy...

Granderson's Price Is Rising

Yesterday's news that the Philadelphia Phillies signed former Met, Marlon Byrd, to a deal that could be worth as much as 3yrs/$24MM is both good news and bad news for Mets fans. The good news is that the Mets won't have the opportunity to see if lightning can strike twice, bringing the 35 year old back to Queens, coming off a career year poised to make more than ten times his 2013 salary. However, the bad news is that the Phillies just sent free agent prices soaring!

Marlon Byrd had a pretty good year in 2013, but he doesn't have the history to back up his offensive production like the Mets reported top outfield target, Curtis Granderson. If a 35 year old Byrd can earn $24MM over the next three seasons, you best believe Granderson will fetch more than the early estimates of $40MM to $45MM over a similar time frame predicted by baseball insiders. You can also kiss the notion of just a three year deal goodbye as well. 

With reports of fellow early thirties free agent outfielder, Nelson Cruz, seeking 5yrs/$75MM (a number he won't get), Granderson's price may reach an iffy area for the Mets front office.  Will they make a four or even five year commitment to an aging power hitter? Can they commit $15MM annuallyto the cause for that long?  They'll say he's over valued (which may be true), but his value will be determined by the market...a market that too a definite swing upwards yesterday.