The Case Against Free Agents as the Way to Make the Mets a Winner

Baseball has always been about three things: scouting, coaching and management. A franchise that does these things well wins.  The amount of money a franchise spends means only so much. The Yankees have outspent every team in baseball for the last dozen years and have only one championship to show for it.  Granted, they have been contenders nearly every year, but the Cardinals and Red Sox have had far greater success and spent a King's ransom less in the same time span. Many have argued that the Mets should follow the Yankees' example and buy every available player as a means to achieving post season success. Anticipating upgrades from the free agent marketplace, however, ignores the limitations of the Mets' owners willingness to spend.  More importantly, it overvalues the pool of available talent that might be purchased to help the franchise succeed.

A recent example shows why acquiring free agents is not all it is cracked up to be.  Michael Bourne was a free agent target of the Mets last winter.  Fans and media alike dubbed him "the Answer" in Centerfield. He was a proven glove and his offensive production was unquestionably far better than any option the Mets had in house.  He wanted a five year, $60M contract.  Sandy Alderson, perhaps knowing that four years wouldn't seal the deal, would not budge.  The Mets lost out on Bourn, who signed with the Indians.

Here were the results: Bourn played 130 games for Cleveland. He had 525 at-bats, scored 75 runs, had a batting average of .263 with an on base percentage of .316. He stole 12 bases and struck out 132 times. Juan Lagares, who was on exactly nobody's radar last winter, played centerfield for the Mets in 2013.  He had 392 at-bats, scored 35 runs, had a batting average of .242 with an on base percentage of .281. He stole 6 bases and struck out 96 times.  Bourn admittedly had marginally better offensive statistics than Lagares in 2013 - some of which can be attributed to batting order placement and more consistent playing time. No one who watched Lagares play day in and day out can say that Bourn was a better defensive outfielder. Lagares has a much higher ceiling and Bourn gets closer to being Cleveland's Jason Bay as each day passes.  Alderson saved the Mets $11.6M in 2013 and for the next four years, close to $40M.  In addition, the Mets selected Dominick Smith with the draft pick they saved by not signing Bourn. Smith played in the Gulf Coast League (and a cup of coffee in Kingston) where he hit a combined .301 with an on base percentage of .398.  He is very young (he turns 19 this coming June), but if he progresses as he started, he is sharing an infield with David Wright in 2016.  Had Alderson signed Bourn, no one ever sees Lagares in a Mets uniform and Dominick Smith plays for a different franchise.  Put differently, assume the roles were reversed and Michael Bourn were on the 2013 Mets with a four year $48M contract ahead of him.  The Indians come knocking on the Mets' door looking for a trade of Lagares and Smith for Bourn. Would the Mets take the deal?  Well, of course they would.

The Class of 2014 Free Agents have been a group led by Robinson Cano ($240M), Jacoby Ellsbury ($153M) and Shin-Soo Choo ($130M).  A talented trio - but unless their individual performances improve substantially, only Cano has Hall of Fame potential.  None of the other free agents this year can turn a club around on his own.  Even the pitching is weak - so much so that a man who has thrown not one pitch to a Major League hitter is the most sought after player.  A look at next year's projected free agents shows a group not as talented and likely to be even more expensive.  Also, because of the rules for becoming a free agent, most players available are over 30 - with many in their mid to late 30's. Hardly the stuff of Cornerstone franchise players. The free agent market can be a valuable source of complementary players, but teams seeking to buy their way to a pennant will find themselves poorer and with a farm system that is devoid of talent as the result of the compensation picks they have to surrender.

The Mets have drafted wisely over the past several years (Matt Harvey, for example), traded players at their peak value for young talent (Beltran and Dickey for Wheeler and d'Arnaud and Syndergaard are two prime examples) and have avoided signing players to contracts that they will regret in years to come (like Jose Reyes). Gone are the days of Bay, Santana, Castillo and Oliver Perez.  They have amassed an abundance of young pitching that they can keep or use as trade bait when the time is right.  In the category of young pitching the Mets could deal are Raphael Montero, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Bobby Parnell, Vic Black, Darin Gorski, Steven Matz, Jeff Walters and Cori Mazzoni.  The road map to consistently good performance starts on the mound. The Mets have accumulated a wealth of high ceiling pitching talent that they could never have acquired via free agency.

The post-Minaya era Mets have demonstrated that they are good talent evaluators.  By not mistaking wishes for facts, the front office has resisted the temptation to sacrifice what they are building long term for short term satisfaction. They have shown remarkable fiscal and emotional discipline (trading R.A. Dickey was a gut-wrenching decision, but clearly the smart move.)  The Mets are obviously a few players away from contending in the tough National League East.  Still, they are far better poised today, without breaking the bank on overpriced free agents, than they were in 2010 when they signed Jason Bay, who was supposed to deliver a World Series to Flushing.

This is a guest post by Denis Engel.

Filling the SS Gap: Jean Segura

Segura was selected to his first All-Star Game in 2013.

With the additions of Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon this past week, Sandy Alderson has fortified two of the major holes the Mets faced going into the offseason.

The most gaping one remaining is at shortstop. Ruben Tejada's mediocre production in 2013 in addition to his poor ability to stay healthy and lack of hustle have led the front office to shut the door on that experiment.

Finding the first suitable replacement for Jose Reyes at short has been a problem Alderson has faced since Reyes' departure in 2011. However, it's the Mets and Milwaukee Brewers who appear to be able to satisfy each other's needs in that department.

The Brewers acquired all-star shortstop Jean Segura from the Angels in 2012 in a deal that sent Zack Greinke to Anaheim. At 23, Segura tore it up in 2013, batting .294/.329/.752 in 146 games at short for the Brewers. Appealing, is he not?

Unfortunately for Milwaukee, the departure of Corey Hart and the uncertain future of Ryan Braun leaves a gaping hole at first base. Missing out on James Loney and Mark Trumbo could leave Ike Davis as a very real possibility for the Brewers to fill that need.

I would project a fair trade as Segura for Davis, Rafael Montero, and if need be, Wilmer Flores or Cesar Puello.

If you're the Mets, you're getting a proven shortstop for a first baseman in need of a change in scenery, one of many pitching prospects you already possess, and one mid-level prospect if you really have to. If you're the Brewers, you're filling first base with a high-ceiling player and getting needed starting pitching.

While general managers thus far haven't taken any of my previous advice, this trade is one that makes a deal of sense to both parties. Here's what the 2014 Mets would look like with Segura in the lineup:

Segura - SS
Young Jr - LF
Wright - 3B
Granderson - RF
Murphy - 2B
Duda - 1B
Lagares - CF
d'Arnaud - C
(Pitcher)

If Sandy Alderson can get this done, things may be looking up Queens much sooner than fans could have hoped.

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Mets Continue To Be Reactive In Free Agency

For all the talk we hear about the Mets looking forward and being proactive towards building a better, sustainable baseball team, they certainly are reactive when it comes to the free agent market.  Its never been much of a secret that the Mets would be operating on a fixed budget of sorts this winter, so why not set the market, rather than react to it.

Free agent prices sent skyward starting with San Francisco's extension of Hunter Pence to the tune of 5 year/$90 million dollars.  That deal set the market price on the higher end of the outfield market.  Marlon Bryd's deal, which could be as much at 3 years/$24 million dollars, set the market price on the lower end.  Each deal greatly impacted what the Mets could accomplish this winter.

The same can be said for the pitching market, which saw Latroy Hawkins exit for a mere $2.5 million guarantee from the Rockies.  More recently, it was Phil Hughes' 3 year/$24 million dollar deal in Minnesota that may eventually impact the Mets pursuit of Bronson Arroyo.  These guys aren't getting cheaper, and the Mets are getting increasingly likely to be left out in the cold.

The notion here isn't to argue whether or not free agents are worth the contracts they're getting.  In many cases they are not, but it remains apparent that team's always overpay for quality talent. That is especially true when teams are looking to rebuild a franchise on questionable financial grounds in a stadium that players are less than thrilled to play in.  The Mets have a variety of hurdles they must clear when they enter the market.

And yes, I realize its not as simple as saying the Mets need to act first.  Players wait out the market in an effort to see if their value will increase.  They may have desires of playing for a contender and see the Mets as their backup plan.  However, the Mets need to make things happen.  They cannot afford to "see whats left" later on in the winter, as Sandy Alderson has now alluded to.

The Mets may have had genuine interest in being active this winter, but by not getting out in front of the market they have allowed things to spiral out of control.  Misreading the market several years ago cost Sandy Alderson a chance to resign Jose Reyes.  This winter it may cost Alderson the offseason renovation the Mets have been promising their fans for years.

The Mets Have A Wilpon Problem

Photo Courtesy of The7Line

Seventy-five.  That's how many wins the New York Mets have averaged over the past five years.  If you're not keeping score at home, that's fourteen games below .500.. on average.  Locked into an ever present battle for fourth place in the division, the Mets are one of only seven teams to not reach the playoffs since 2006.  In the meantime, a new stadium, a sports network and a massive financial scandal have all combined to retard the franchise's progress forward.

So what comes next?  A methodical reduction in payroll.  First Beltran, then Luis Castillo and good ol' Ollie Perez.  Next up was Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and finally, Johan Santana.  A big market team which once boasted a payroll in excess of $135MM, has been reduced to a mid-market excuse for a baseball franchise struggling to find the pennies necessary to field a $90MM roster.

The one constant over this half decade long struggle?  The Wilpons.  Principle owner Fred Wilpon and his silver spooned idiot son, Jeff, have presided over and ridden a once proud franchise directly into the ground.  Gone are the big contracts, the playoff runs and for the most part..the ticket sales.  The rowdy stands of Shea Stadium have morphed into the sparsely populated bleachers of Citi Field, and I'm not even sure the organization has noticed.

From claims that the franchise is snake bitten to unfathomable statements that money is no obstacle, the Wilpons remain out of touch with the reality of their situation.  Yesterday provided the most recent example of the Wilpons' complete disregard for the fan base they depend on.  In the early weeks of an offseason of renaissance, with fans clamoring for the first of what they hope will be many acquisitions this winter, ownership dunce Jeff Wilpon took to the mic to scream from the rafters than the Mets were poised to do something big.  With several things in the works..an announcement was on the horizon.  What could go wrong?

Fast forward two hours and Sandy Alderson is left the pick up the pieces.  Not only was no acquisition imminent,  but the big news of the day would be next season's summer concert series.  Fans were left in disbelief.  How could one of the men at the forefront of this organization have no clue that his words would incite the masses?  Five lost years..with a shred of hope mixed in with the mirage at the end of the tunnel, and ownership just toys with its line of income.

I can't begin to predict what will happen between now and spring training, but it remains safe to say that the organization's ultimate leadership, its owners, are the root of the problem.  I once feared the biggest dilemma we might face would be their bankroll, or lack thereof.  However, now it seems their inability to grasp the reality of their situation could be our downfall.  Jeff Wilpon's words have once again kicked Mets fans in their proverbial teeth.  Now its time to put whatever money he might have left where his mouth is..assuming there is any room left once he removes his foot.

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Yasiel Puig..The New Jordany Valdespin?

Photo By Ride The Pine

There were some tense..probably not absolutely necessary moments during the fourth inning of last night's Game 4 of the National League Championship Series.  Cardinal's pitcher, Lance Lynn, buzzed young Dodger's stud, Yasiel Puig, with an inside pitch in what was likely retaliation for Puig's antics one night prior. 

In case you've been living under a rock, late in Game 3 Puig lined a ball down the right field line that he originally thought would leave the park.  He threw his hands into the air and watched the ball's flight.  Then promptly realized the ball would stay in the yard right before it caromed off the outfield wall.  Puig ended up with a stand up triple, pumping his fists in excitement when he got there.  Personally, I didn't have a problem with it (minus not running out of the box), but the St. Louis Cardinals did.  This initiated much debate yesterday that raged far and wide on the internet about celebratory antics.

If some of this sounds familiar to Mets fans, its because our own resident bonehead, Jordany Valdespin, was guilty of similar nonsense multiple times this season.  Actions, which go against the unwritten rules of baseball, often cause reactions, leading to harsh words, players getting hit by pitches and sometimes..brawls.  Puig's actions in Game 3 were likely unecessary, but they do provide good theater for the series moving forward.  Once again, I have no problem with them.

That leads me to ask myself why I didn't take offense with Puig's showboating when I certainly took offense to Valdespin's during the season.  The only answer I'm able to come up with is that Puig has the talent to back those actions up.  All Puig did this season was almost single handedly turn the Dodgers season around.  He's an absolute stud in all facets of the game and will be a household name for years to come.  Valdespin is none of those things.

Simply put..its a double standard.  Puig isn't the next Jordany Valdespin because he's actually really good at baseball.  Where Spins actions are a detriment to his team, Puig's are a motivator.  I would go as far as saying that Puig is probably the most exciting player I've seen since Jose Reyes and we all know how many team's took exception to Reyes "antics".  But that was okay by us, because Jose Reyes was really good at baseball, just like Yasiel Puig.

Mets Clueless On Harvey's Surgery Date

Photo Courtesy of @Lets86It

Yesterday afternoon Matt Harvey's agent, Scott Boras, announced that Harvey will have Tommy John surgery within the next week. It was major news that the best pitcher in New York decided to go under the knife yesterday. It was also major news that a rough date had been set for the surgery. The problem is that it was news to the Mets as well.

From a standpoint of managing Harvey's injured wing this means nothing, but it does leave some egg on the face of the organization. First there were miscommunications about him experiencing pain, and now this?  How the team could not be on top of this situation is unbelievably frustrating...

Whether or not Alderson's front office is good at evaluating talent can be debated. What can't be debated is its seeming inability to maintain lines of communication with its best players. Think Jose Reyes prior to his departure...  I know it takes two to tango, and Boras probably should have called the Mets before he called the press, but that doesn't make the team look any better. 

With the goal being surgery before December 1st, Harvey will be on schedule to start the 2015 season healthy. Now he just has to navigate a career threatening surgery and a years worth of rehab. After all, this is the Mets... What could possibly go wrong?

Should He Stay Or Should He Go: Eric Young Jr.

Photo Courtesy Of @Lets86It

Eric Young Jr. was a man searching for an opportunity.  Never a regular fixture in the Colorado Rockies outfield, Young became expendable.  When the Mets finally demoted Ike Davis, sliding Lucas Duda over the first base, the team was in need of an everyday left fielder.  Sandy Alderson immediately sent AAA pitcher, Collin McHugh, to Colorado in exchange for Young's services.  Upon his arrival, Young received the opportunity he had been waiting for.

Whether or not Young seized his opportunity probably depends on what you expected from him.  If you were looking for a power hitting outfielder, aka the pipe dream the Mets had for Duda, well than Young was not your man.  If you were looking for a speedster capable of hitting leadoff, a role the Mets were lacking, and a significant defensive upgrade from the aforementioned Duda, well than maybe Young was your guy.

Young would go on to bat .251 for the Mets in route to stealing 46 bases on the season, good for second in all of baseball behind only Jacoby Ellsbury.  He also played top ten defense amongst his peers in left field.  Not an all-star by any means, but certainly a respectable showing given the circumstances.

The question now becomes whether or not he has earned the opportunity to be a member of the 2014 New York Mets outfield.  As per MLB Trade Rumors, the arbitration eligible Young is predicted to earn $1.9 million in 2014.  That's a raise of $1.5 million over his 2013 salary, one which I feel is both warranted and appropriate for a player of his caliber.  That said, while I think the Mets should do what they can to make sure Young remains on the roster next year, I don't think he should be the starting left fielder of the future.

There are better options available to patrol left field next season, but that doesn't mean Eric Young Jr. shouldn't be kept in the fold.  There hasn't been a Mets player since Jose Reyes who has caused the type of havoc Young managed on the base paths in 2013.  His speed is a game changer and although Young proved this season he is capable to playing a significant role when necessary, his skill set is better suited to see him as a fourth outfielder, a defensive replacement, and a late game pinch hit/pinch run option.  Basically, Young would be an excellent addition to the Mets' bench in 2014 and its for that reason he should stay.

Like what you've read?  You can follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83.

Figuring Out Mets Fans

Players, personnel, team direction and team history.. Its all cause for argument.  There isn't much that Mets fans tend to agree on, but I think we're all in agreement that we comprise one of the most passionate, connected fan bases on the planet.  That said, there are certainly cliques within crowd.  Where do you fall?

The Eternal Optimists
I used to find myself here.  No matter what, things are going to get better.  They'll figure it out.  They'll get it done.  I believe in my Mets..They won't let me down!  And then they did..over and over again.  Some fans remain undeterred in the face of some pretty epic meltdowns and little progress in recent years.  They believe the Mets are only a few moves away from a World Series run and they also believe in each and every player that straps on the uniform.  This isn't a terrible mindset to have by any means.  It makes the games more fun and prevents fans from ever getting down on their team.  Its just at this point, I don't know how y'all do it...

The 'I Don't Care' Contingent
There are two subgroups within this larger group.  First and foremost there are a great number of fans who are so beaten down, so weathered by season after season of disappointment that they can no longer tune in on a nightly basis to watch the team flounder.  It may not be that they don't care, but they've certainly become apathetic towards the team's plight.  The other group that resides here are those who say, the Mets need to get better and "I don't care how they do it."  To trade you have to have players worth trading.  To sign players via free agency you need money.  To win games you need good players.  The circumstances make no difference to these folks.  Just get it done so I can enjoy my baseball team.

The Past vs. The Present
This has got to be the most tired group within the fan base.  I'm not talking about those who discuss the franchise legends like Tom Seaver or Cleon Jones.  I'm talking about those who still, to this day, argue about the departure of Jose Reyes.  Those who still make references to Carlos Beltran's strike out that ended the 2006 NLCS.  Those who discuss any one of an unending list of team failures.  I suppose there is a level of comfort in those years.  You know..when the Mets were good..or at least when we had reasons to be optimistic.  However, those days are long gone now.  Dwelling on the past takes what little fun there is in the present away, but that doesn't matter to this group..who just can't get over the mistakes of yesteryear.

The Righteous Reality
This tends to be an ever slowly growing group of Mets fans.  Those who read everything, understand the game, and the processes that go into putting a team on the field.  Its also has to be one of the most frustrated groups within the fan base.  These guys and gals are always looking forward.  The next draft or free agency period that will usher in the future.  They are aware that off-the-field circumstances effect the product on the field.  That baseball is a business and we may not always (or ever) get what we want.  These fans learn from the past and hope that the Mets can do the same.  They also try to impart that logic on other, often unsuspecting and less than willing, Mets fans.  These are the intellectuals (sometimes self-proclaimed), if you will.. and you're going to hear their opinion whether you like it or not.

The Bandwagon
Bueller....Bueller.... (If your too young for that joke, look it up.)  There probably aren't enough fans left here to warrant talking about, but the bandwagon fans are an integral part to any fan base.  Believe it or not, no baseball team in the country could fill their stadium without the bandwagon fan.  Show up when the getting is good and then find the exits when things start to spoil.  Baseball is supposed to be fun, and these fans won't partake in it any other way.  Well..baseball hasn't been all that fun in Queens lately and the stands at Citi Field reflect that.  However, the bandwagon fan is more important to team revenue that most people understand and its for that reason that they remain an integral part of the Mets fan base.

So, where do you stand?  Chances are you can probably align your thoughts with more than one of these groups.  Maybe you just hate labels, which is fine too.  While we all often disagree about the best players and the best courses of action, its important to remember that we're all still here.  Its important to remember that one day things will get better, and for those of use who've rode out the storm, it will be glorious to watch it all come together.  In the meantime...try not to kill one another!

If you like what you read, you can follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83.